COMMENTARY 12/22/16

Mild here in the US and decent growing conditions for Brazil and Argentina with exception to just Bahia and spots N/ NE, which are expected to stay warm and dry through early January.

LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level “SPITTING SAND”!! ~ at 3.0′ and forecast 3.8by 12/26.  

CORN

UNCHANGED

Export sales were supportive, running above the high end of expectations at 49.2 mill bu. Japan at 21 mill and Mexico 14 mill were the big buyers.  Expectations were 31 – 43 mill bu for the week.  The weaker board isn’t helping any bushels nearby and that is helping firm basis.  Freight is steady to weaker despite low water making river navigation more difficult. Current stocks to use estimates indicate possible further weakness in futures and the Index funds will likely need to buy  sometime after 1/10 to rebalance themselves. Open Interest is growing, meaning the specs are growing their short position for the new year.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 12

They beat them down again as another 1¾” to 3½”  of accum is now expected for Argentina between now and Mon.  -and accordingly, they continue taking risk premium out of the market.  The soy oil market retreated hard due to long liquidation and end of year positioning.  Export Sales were STRONG at 66.6 mill bu vs expectations of 40 – 51 mill! Brazilian traders are indicating that initial harvest IS underway. The big push should start in the next 5-10 days. Crop size estimates are starting to grow 104-106 million tonnes. The SF/SH spread tugged in ¾ of a cent, as producer movement decreases to a crawl. The next big potential event is a weather change for N or S America, or some producer movement.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 2

Today, really felt like a holiday market.  Export Sales were weak at just 10.9 vs expectations of 11 -18 mill bu.  Argentina is now expected to grow 15.7 mill tons of wheat vs a prev est of 14.9 and just 11.3 harvested last year.