COMMENTARY 12/21/16

Seasonable, mild, dry weather takes us into the weekend.  Temperatures warm dramatically as a strong system emerges, but this system will bring rain for the Corn Belt and Delta with the exception being the NW Corn Belt and Dakotas.  In SA, Argentina, S Brazil, and Paraguay are forecast to expect 1.5″ – 3.5″ of additional accum (oh, so THAT’S why beans are down so much).  Daily temps next week should get into the 90’s.

LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level “SPITTING SAND”!! ~ at 2.0′ and forecast 3.9by 1/3.  

CORN

DOWN 3

Corn demand questions. Today’s Ethanol Prod declined 4 K bpd to 1.036 mill, which was in line with expectations.  Eth Stocks were also close at 19.06 mill barrels.  Higher ocean freight could keep Japan from buying our US corn and cheap Russian feed wheat  won’t help either, nor will the outbreak of brid flu.  We need to be averaging approx. 45 mill per week in exports to stay in line with USDA needs.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are looking light at 31-43 mill bu for the week.  we still have a lot of sales that are unshipped.

 

BEANS     

UNCHANGED

Another 132K bean sale to China was announced and meal was higher early on due to some light buying.  NE Brazil is the next group to try their hand at a little dryness as S Argentina is getting a break with some good rain coverage.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 40-51 mill bu.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 4

Russia escaped recent cold damage and Argentina is becoming a strong competitor in exports.   They are likely to be the cheapest origin in the N Hemisphere this month. They are est production at 15.2 MMT.  Abitrigo est’s the crop at 12.5-13.0 MMT and that compares to the BAGE at 12.5 and the USDA at 14.4.  Thur’s Export Sales are thought to be 11 – 18 mill bu.