COMMENTARY 12/20/16

Seasonable, mild, dry weather takes us into the weekend.  Temperatures warm dramatically as a strong system emerges, but this system will bring rain for the Corn Belt and Delta with the exception being the NW Corn Belt and Dakotas where they are expecting blizzard conditions.  In SA, two cold fronts bring storms for much of Argentina, S Brazil, and now Paraguay for the next 7 to 10 days.  To the N, mostly dry and increasingly hot weather  next week for theNE. This isn’t really ideal but these areas were TOO wet prior.  A little drying out won’t be bad.

LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level “SPITTING SAND”!! ~ at 1.0′ and forecast 2.0by 12/22.  

CORN

DOWN 3

More pressure from beans today and AgRural raises the Brazil crop 2 MMT above USDA’s last est of 86.5 and CONAB at 83.8.  Japan and S Korea have a bird flu outbreak.  S Japan is culling 1 mill birds as this is the 6th outbreak this year.  S Korea has culled 10% of chickens and 22% their of duck populations.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 16

S Argentina had a reprieve from the dryness and mostly favorable weather is in store for SA.  Cordonnier raised his Brazil bean Production est 2 MMT to 103 and compares to the USDA at 102, and CONAB at 102.4.  The only real concern left for Brazil’s beans are some isolated dry spots in the NE but will likely be offset by excellent yields in other areas like in RGDS.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 2

Early on, some meteorologists were down playing the impact of the cold weekend weather on wheat areas.  Now the HRW crop MAY have some damage from the cold as this weather WAS likely the worst in the last 20 years.  Though covered with 1-2″ of snow, potentially half of the HRW may have felt the cold.