COMMENTARY 12/19/16

How about those temps?!  It was extremely cold for a big portion of the US through the weekend.  Sufficient snow cover did present itself to protect hard red and soft winter wheat areas.  The is being forecast for this next Holiday weekend which should affect the lower and E Midwest.  In SA, N Argentina got some much needed 1 – 2″ accum with some areas even getting up to 4″!  They have more likelihood for some additional showers as we work through this week bringing another 1-2″ of rain. S and W Brazil could see some additional showers but for the most part Brazil should be rather dry.

LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level SPITTING SAND!! ~ at 1.0′ and forecast 2.0by 12/21.  

CORN

DOWN 3

Weaker with the bean complex and rather light Export Inspections of 30.3 vs expectations of 39 – 51 with 43 needed per week.  There was another 128K sold to Japan, announced today.  Heilongjiang, China has banned growing GMO yc beginning May 1.  They are China’s largest yc state.

BEANS     

DOWN 15

Much needed rains in Argentina quenched their hot thirst.  The States of BA and La Pampa received  widespread accum of ½” – 1 ½” over the weekend.  Today’s Export Inspections were better than corn’s were at 63.6 vs expectations of 48-63 with 26 per week still  needed.  Of that total,  China was 47.4, so they are VERY important!  Another 264K sales too was announced today to China.  Safras has raised their Brazil crop est significantly, up 2.6 MMT from Oct to 106.1 mill with development rated at GREAT.  Some 97% of their crop is now planted, 2.2 points ahead of last year.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 4

The extreme cold missed our biggest wheat areas.  Export Inspections  were 17.6 mill bu, near the top end of the 11-18 mill expectations with 18.3 per week still needed.  China cancelled 1.1.  MARS, The EU’s crop monitor is expecting possible frost kill beginning the 21st in the Baltics along with parts of Poland, W Belarus, Romania and S and W Ukraine due to lack of snow to insulate.  Temps are expected to fall as low as -4 Below F.  The BA Exchange expects Cordoba to harvest a record 4 MMT this year, up from last year’s  2.7.  A 23% decrease in export taxes has allowed a lot of fertilization, which means better yields and less chances for ergot.