COMMENTARY 12/16/16

Once this large winter storm passes through over the weekend, we should break into a more mild winter pattern.  In SA, the last 6 week dry period should be about over for N Arg as we get into Sun -Thu. The GFS forecast expects heavy rainfall of 1.5″ – 3″ for the NE third of corn and bean areas, but STILL leaves the S sharply drier.  Corn there is the driest in more than 35 years.  No change for Brazil with showers adjacent to Bahia and Minas Gerais.  Much of Brazil should receive lesser accum than recently, especially for the NE.  In the U.S., a large winter storm passes through next 36 hours, followed by a quieter and milder week. 

LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 4.4′ and forecast 2.2by 12/20.  

CORN

UNCHANGED

With little new news technicals were unable to break through CH $3.62 and 3.64 resistance.  Yesterday’s Export Sales were robust at 59.7 mill bu vs expectations of 31 -43 mill.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 20% TW (25% LW), Bearish 60% (19% LW),  Neutral 20% (56% LW)

 

BEANS     

UP 8

Down from the highs, as markets await the arrival of rains in N Argentina and another sales of 205 K announced to Unknown this morning.  Yesterday’s Exports were way above expected at 73.8 mill bu vs expectations of 40 – 55!  One US end user is bullish soy crush and expects it to grow 8MMT per year for the next five years.  The EIU recently revised its est for global soybean consumption 5.6% higher to 324 MMT.  The USDA expects a more modest increase of +4.5%.  The last five yrs annual rate of growth is 5% or 12.6 MMT.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 40% TW (50% LW); Bearish, 25% (31%); Neutral, 35% (19%)

 

WHEAT

UNCHANGED

Mixed.  Thursday’s Export Sales were above average at 19.5 mill bu vs expectations of 11 – 18.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 30% TW (6% LW), Bearish, 50% (25% LW), Neutral 20% (69% LW)