COMMENTARY

This week, three systems come together and as Alberto works his way N and should produce accums of 1/2 to 1 1/2 over a wide area.  Temps should be unseasonably mild and cooler in some areas. The cooler system should bring drier air, limiting accums and coverage for the next two weeks.  May was was the third warmest since 1895 for the Corn Belt and N Plains.

CORN

DOWN 6

Fund selling and crop ratings were BETTER than expected at 92% G/E.  The average guess was 93% in a 90-96% range. MI and PA are still behind 17 and 19 for their normal averages. After being so far behind, it is now off to the best start in 20 yrs!  Some turn around!  Weather uncertainty is keeping a damper on yield ests…..keeping them from getting too far above 180 bpa, for now.  Technically speaking, the next level of support for July fut is 3.90.

 

Yest’s Crop Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   92% TW,  81% LW, 90% LY, and 90% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   100% TW,  96% LW, 92% LY, and 94% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   72% TW,  50% LW, 70% LY, and 69% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   89% TW,  84% LW, 78% LY, and 81% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:   

IL YC CONDITIONS:    83% G/E,   88% LW,  52% LY

BEANS              

DOWN 7

Ick!  A 17 cent trade range compliments of political issues as well as concerns over US/China trade.  Crop progress continues to improve at 77% compared to 62% average. MI is still behind normal by 15 points but most other states are slapping them right into the ground. Yesterday’s 77% even beat the average guess of 73% and emergence is ahead of normal as well.  Brazil ports still congested from recent trucker strike.

 

Crop Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   77% TW,  56% LW, 65% LY, and 62% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   90% TW,  81% LW, 60% LY, and 62% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   47% TW,  26 % LW, 34% LY, and 32% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   75% TW,  57% LW, 35% LY, and 35% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 14

Beneficial rain in the US West and improving conditions with some tech selling and Fund selling.  Winter ratings improved 2 to 38% G/E though still behind last year by 12. The trades guess 36% and spring wheat is 91% planted, one better than expected. The 5 yr avg is right around 90%.  The Canada Prairie has some rain in the forecast and recent rain in the HRW should be helping to increase yield potential.  OK is starting early harvest, reporting initially that protein levels are better than expected.  In soft red country, from here down do the Delta, Fusarium IS still a possibility.  W Australia is still hoping for scattered showers NEXT week.  -and keep your eye peeled on the Black Sea and Russia.  The early half of June IS a critical slot for development/quality issues there too!

 

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   38% G/E TW,  36% LW, and 50% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    66% G/E TW,  66% LW, and 51% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     73% TW,  461 LW, 79% LY, and 75% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    93% TW,  74% LW, 97% LY, and 89% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   91% TW, 79% LW, 95% LY, and 89% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT EMERGED:   63% TW, 37% LW, 77% LY, and 68% AVG