COMMENTARY 1/19/17

Widespread rain hit Mato Grosso,Goias, and Tocantin two days in a row while Bahia stayed dry.  Argentina was hot and mostly dry with highs in the 90’s.  The next 6-10 days is hot/dry for a big portion of Argentina, S Brazil, and Paraguay. The newest forecast shows a particularly wet streak with 2.5” – 5” of rain in already flooded areas of Central/S Argentina.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 9.9′ and forecast 12.0by 1/24.  

CORN

UP 1

Today’s big feature is higher nearby freight costs!  Barge freight sky-rocketed 10 cents higher as wet, foggy weather slows barge placements in the STL area during a time of fairly decent grain movement off the farm due to recent Board rallies.  Nearby basis levels dropped accordingly but should get better as grain movement slows , OR,…. we get closer Feb.  A 110.4 K MT Export Sale was announced for16/17 to Unknown this morning. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 35 – 47 mill bu.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 5

Traded both sides until freight shot higher!  No major weather changes with widespread rains across Mato Grosso and hot temps for S Argentina and S Brazil.  Forecast has temps fluctuating and more chances for heavy accum in the flooded areas of Argentina Jan into Feb. Tomorrow’s Export Sales, out tomorrow due to Mon’s holiday are thought to be 15 -22 mill bu.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 7

Looking for new news!  The new crop balance sheet is the talk with the HRW acreage and winter kill questions and a wave of heavy moisture expected for SRW areas across the next 10 days.  With a now decent subsoil moisture now, for the HRW belt, there could be increased discussion of fall crops winning acreage battles this spring over potentially poor wheat stands. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 9-17 mill bu.