COMMENTARY 1/17/17

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 7.9′ and forecast 11.6by 1/22.  

CORN

UP 7

Active to start the week as most of the fundamental news was focused on the Argentina being too dry and now too wet. Funds joined the rally and it looks like the bean/corn ratio will continues to encourage the planting of BEAN acres. Chinese ethanol export demand is being questioned.  Today’s Inspections were firm at 35 mill bu with 45 needed per week. This is the second highest Jan Inspections in the last 10 years, trailing 2008. March futures  were not able to break through the October high of 3.67 with the next technical target up at 3.72 left from July.

 

BEANS     

UP 23

Another round of rain over the extended weekend for the wettest areas of Argentina, followed by forecasts of hot and dry.  Analysts are talking about smaller overall crop and one thinks their bean crop may have shrunk 7%. If true this could impact the world balance sheet of and could even lead the market into thinking demand could come back to the US by late summer.  With an already lowered Carryout in last week’s report,  from 480 mill bu down to 420, some may think about a 50-100 mill bu impact on US Ccarryout, due to larger exports.  Basis was weaker again on farm movement and higher Jan freight.  Keep your eye on SA weather any wavering toward a wetter outlook could goose the market again!

WHEAT

UP 7

Fund buying of the other commodities helped bolster.  Inspections were 12.7 mill bu, at the lower end of expectations and short of the 19.7 /week needed.  HRW shipments were 60% of the total.  Egypt was in the market over the long weekend for wheat buying 235k tonnes of wheat from Russia and Romania. So far, Russia has supplied Egypt with 70% of their purchases since July 1.