COMMENTARY 1/17/16

Dry weather for Argentina, S Brazil, and Paraguay for the next 7 to 10 days.  Heat resumes in Argentina and Paraguay Fri/Sat and all areas turn cooler and wetter once we get into Feb.  Coverage and amounts are debatable, but normal accum of 0.75” to 1.5” is likely with heavier amounts of 1” to 3” are likely Central and S.  N Brazil remains wet including Goias and Mato Grosso with exception of Bahia which is still droughty.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 15.0′ and forecast 15.6by 1/30.  

CORN

DOWN 3

Weaker despite EXCELLENT Export Sales of 53.9 mill bu vs expectations of 28 -39 mill.  Meal sales were 276.8 K MT, above the 120-250 range. Meal YTD is running about 60% of USDA’s est and very similar to last year’s.  Pressure seems to be coming from favorable, non-threatening SA weather.  Although the market WILL still have its eye on Mato Grosso moisture as they get started planting their second crop corn.   Brazil’s vessel lineup continues to grow and early yield reports are near record highs. The Buenos Aires exchange est the Argentine crop  53.5 MMT vs USDA est of 57 earlier in Jan.  Your crop insurance base pricing period begins on Wed 2/1 with Dec fut around 3.90.  Last year’s base was 3.86.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 6

Weaker as SA weather allows early harvest to proceed.  Export Sales were mid range at 19.8 mill vs expectations of 17 – 24 mill bu and only 7.5 needed per week from here on out.  That is down 10% from the four week average as SA harvest gets going and draws demand away from US…. (or will it?).  Nov fut are 10.20-ish for crop insurance base.  Last year’s was 8.85.

WHEAT

UP 2

Mixed. Funds bought 1,000 contracts today.  A whopper of an Export Sales at 31.8 mill bu was sharply above expectations of 7-15 and last year’s 10.8.  The USDA is expecting a record Australia crop of 33.0 MMT!  Late winter into spring forecast is beginning to look wet for the US Plains and temps are not too threatening for winterkill.