COMMENTARY 6/30/14 **BEARISH REPORT**

COMMENTARY

WHEAT

DOWN 20

Harvest should reach 50% complete by Mon 6/30.   USDA Report was out this am.  Acres are up from 55.82 at 56.47Qrtlrly Stocks are .590 vas 1.256.  Export Inspections were 12.3  vs expectations of 17 – 21 with the biggest buyer being Japan.

Quality concerns ARE NOW UPON US!    HIGHER levels of Vomitoxin are being seen in fields that were NOT treated with Fungicide.  Now slipping, TW are 54 – 56.  Additional rain IS deteriorating the TW and quality once ripe and warm humid conditions will encourage additional fungal activity.  Significant amounts of damage are being seen, especially in extreme Southern IL.  This week’s conditions are PERFECT for fungal activity, creating scab, shrinking wheat berries, and causing VOMI levels to increase Vomi discounts have soared over the last few days as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat.  IT IS ADVISABLE TO CUT WHEAT WETTER THAN NORMAL AND DRY IT TO INTERRUPT FUNGAL ACTIVITY.

Funds are NOW SHORT some -108million bu of wheat.   Early yield reports form the Plains are low as expected.  Harvest ramps up.  Yields locally are hearty, but so are the discounts for Vomitoxin.  HRS conditions dropped 9% in MN due to excessive rains with national ratings dropping 1 to 71% G/E.  Harvest is moving along at 33% vs. 31% AVG with (TX 69%, OK 74%, KS 24%).  Scattered storms this week will further degrade quality and increase discounts.

Winter heat HARVESTED is 43% This Week, 33% LW, 40% LY, and 48% AVG.  The STATE of IL is 55% HARVESTED This Week, 20% LW, 40% LY, and62% AVG.

BEANS

OLD DOWN 32      NEW DOWN 71

USDA REPORT WAS BEARISH FOR OLD & NEW CROP BEANS.   ACRES 84.84 vs 81.49 million.  (Avg guess was 82 million)  The report added 3.3 million more to planted acres and “found” some beans as the negative residual was 23 million more than the trade had been anticipating. Stocks were .405 vs. 992. Funds are still LONG some +382 mill bu of YSB (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board).  Export Inspections were 2.7 vs expectations of 2 – 5.

US CROP CONDITIONS are 72 % G/E, 72% LW, and67%LY. The State of IL was 74% G/E THIS WEEK and 73%LW.

US EMERGENCE was 94% THIS WEEK, 90% LW, 90% LY, and 94% AVG.  Emergence for the State of IL was 95% THIS WEEK, 93% LW, 92% LY, and 91% AVG.

CORN                      

DOWN 18 to 21

USDA’s planted acreage was 91.64 vs 91.69 and an avg guess of 91.79 (down 100,000 acres) but the June 1 stocks number came in 131 million higher than the average trade guess, and should add at least 100 mbu to carry-out.  Stocks were 3.854 vs 7.006 and an avg guess of 3.724.  Export Inspections were 34.4 vs expectations of 37 – 43 with the two giggest buyers being Egypt and the Western Hemisphere.

St Louis river levels rising  at +24.8 ft today and forecast to be 26.4 by 7/5.  Flooding and high water in Iowa causes delays in loading of Northern corn barges.  That means more demand for STL barges that are 3 – 5 days CLOSER to the Gulf for off loading onto export vessels.

Argentina is just 49% harvested compared to 77% LY.    July first notice is Monday, as is the USDA acreage and stocks report. The recent basis softness was reflected in the CN/CU inverse breaking from 6 ½ a couple of days ago, to 3 ¾ on the close today. Processors and river basis values were mostly unchanged around the IL river delivery system today.  The two week weather outlook appears supportive for developing corn plants.  west the next few days and then shifting southward.  These will increase the moisture excess in the wettest areas.  June will likely be the #1 wettest since 1895 across the corn/bean belt.  A noticeable cooling trend will occur next week, followed by a warmer pattern for the second week of July but this will be conducive to new t-storms with near- to above-average rainfall most likely.

Nationwide Crop Rating  INCREASED at 75% G/E vs 74% LW and 67% LY.  The State of IL  INCREASED 2% at 80% G/E vs 78% LW.  US CORN SILKING was 5% This Week, 3% LY, and 9% AVG.  The State of IL Silking was 4% This Week, n/a LW, 1% LY, and 14% AVG.

 

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you planted.  Ensure what they sold you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are contaminated seed issues out there.