COMMENTARY 11/28/14

For U.S. agricultural areas, mild and mainly dry weather continues for 7-10 days. Argentina was mostly dry the past couple of days, as well as southern Brazil while few showers were noted north. Rainfall the next 7-10 days should be near normal in both Argentina and Brazil, keeping growing regions adequately moist to wet into at least mid-December. Too much soil moisture could be the risk in parts of Center-West and Southeast Brazil given heavy rains in recent weeks and a continuation through next week.

St Louis river levels RISING at +9.7 ft  and forecast to be 10.8 by 12/1. Weekend rains helped!

CORN      

DOWN 2

FUND ACTIVITY.

Corn is perhaps under some influence from the weakness in crude as export sales were quite supportive and we did have a 4.3 mbu daily sale announcement. The export sales were at 37.2 vs the expected 24 – 31 and 22 1/2 per week needed.

Don’t allow Fund buying to make you too bullish, preventing you from making PROFITABLE sales.  Look to improve upon existing sales.  (Lock in  these higher CA$H values for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, & APR). This is a great time to make up for not having much sold prior to harvest!  Have offers in to take advantage of a higher board, should one materialize.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 33

FUND selling.   Market ignores China bean purchase; wire services talk of a pick-up in producer selling. U.S. planted soybean acres are 82.2, down 2 million from this year. Most private analysts estimate 88-89 as a more common value.The export sales are at 54.6 which is WELL ABOVE trade ideas of 26-37 (need 7 1.2) – usual China stuff, strong EU showing & Russia in for 3.7 mbu.

 

WHEAT          

UP 16

Concerns over cold weather’s impact on the Plains, Europe and Russia and a smaller Australian estimate.  US Crop Conditions Ratings dropped 2 points to 58% Good/Excellent.  Australia’s winter grain outlook remains mixed with disappointing winter/spring rainfall and even some reports of frost damage.