COMMENTARY 11/26/14

 For U.S. agricultural areas, mild and mainly dry weather continues for 7-10 days.  In South America, Argentina received 1/3 to 1” in the North.  Argentina should see close to normal precip for the next ten days which should facilitate row crop planting as well as wheat harvest activity. Brazil received 1/3” or less precip in the South with 40% coverage.   Multiple storms will restrain remaining first-crop planting in Center-West and Southeast Brazil.

St Louis river levels RISING at +9.7 ft  and forecast to be 10.8 by 12/1. Weekend rains helped!

CORN      

UP 4

FUND BUYING.

Barge freight nearby continues to weaken.  The market has moved nearly 50 cents higher during October on no real change in fundamentals.  Don’t allow Fund buying to make you too bullish, preventing you from making PROFITABLE sales.  Look to improve upon existing sales.  (Lock in  these higher CA$H values for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, & APR). This is a great time to make up for not having much sold prior to harvest!  Have offers in to take advantage of a higher board, should one materialize.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 4

FUND selling.   Market ignores China bean purchase; wire services talk of a pick-up in producer selling. U.S. planted soybean acres are 82.2, down 2 million from this year. Most private analysts estimate 88-89 as a more common value.

 

 

WHEAT          

UP 10

Concerns over cold weather’s impact on the Plains, Europe and Russia and a smaller Australian estimate.  US Crop Conditions Ratings dropped 2 points to 58% Good/Excellent.  Australia’s winter grain outlook remains mixed with disappointing winter/spring rainfall and even some reports of frost damage.