COMMENTARY 11/24/14

Scattered t-storms moved across South Argentina over the last 12 hours, slowing field activities. Favorable soil moisture conditions are present for first-crop corn and soybean development for much of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay as most areas were wetter than usual over the last 30 days.Widespread coverage of above-average rainfall affects Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the next 10 days.Widespread rainfall of 2.5″- 5.00″ is probable through the period, compared to an average of approximately 2.00″ – 3.00″. In Argentina, a few t-storms will develop Central and North, but of 0.75″ – 1.50″ amounts will be limited to the northern fringe. Mainly dry weather follows through Friday.

St Louis river levels DROPPING at +2.13 ft  and forecast to be 8.8 by 11/27. The Upper Miss will start closing early this week and the Mid Miss the following week (this is a week earlier than normal due to low water and the Polar Vortex).  As the export transportation pipeline shrinks, it stresses the lower system to perform.

CORN      

DOWN 5

MIXED FUND ACTIVITY!  Disappointing export sale sat 20.9 as the trade was expecting 23-32 and well short of the 35.6 per week needed. Yesterday’s Export Sales were healthy at 35.8 mbu, exceeding both the trade’s 20-28 mbu range and the near-23/week pace needed, with big volume going to Japan.

Argentine corn volume drops 12 mbu to 21; well up from last’s week 7 mub weekly figure. Brazil corn volume falls 17 million to 81 with 5 fewer vessels in the total lineup.

 The market has moved nearly 50 cents higher during October on no real change in fundamentals.  Don’t allow Fund buying to make you too bullish, preventing you from making PROFITABLE sales.  Look to improve upon existing sales.  (Lock in  these higher CA$H values for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, & APR). This is a great time to make up for not having much sold prior to harvest!  Have offers in to take advantage of a higher board, should one materialize.

Last Monday’s Crop Progress report:   US HARVESTED 89% TW, 80% LW, 90% LY%, and 88% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 94% TW, 87% LW, 95% LY, and 89% AVG.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 5

FUND BUYING!   Another case of H5 strain bird-flu was reported in the Netherlands the market views on the U.S. bean pipeline are mixed with some saying we have ample supplies, while others argue producers have locked the bin doors awaiting higher prices and/or the New Year.  Bean  planting in Parana reaches 84%, 5 points behind LY.  The BA Exchange says the Argentine planting pace nearly doubled to 30.4% while trailing 2013 by about 8 points.

Thursday’s Export Sales at 17.7 were on the light side relative to trade expectations of  26-37 million.  South American Meal is cheaper than that of the US. More data confirms that several more bean meal vessels are being switched from US origins to SOUTH AMERICA.  Additional export demand is still needed and the market is not terribly concerned about South American weather at this point.  South American meal MAY be cheaper, but one consulting firm concludes that the good ‘ol U.S. logistical network is more reliable than either Argentina or Brazil.  On average, U.S. beans arrive within 3 days of expected delivery date, Argentina within 7 days,  and Brazil as high as 15 days.

 

Last Monday’s Crop Progress report:  US BEANS HARVESTED 94% TW, 90%LW, 94% LY, and 96% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 95% THIS WEEK, 91% LW, 98% LY 97% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 5

MIXED FUND ACTIVITY.  Strength bled over from corn and beans early.  Thursday’s Export Sales were routine at 13.3 mbu  vs expectations of  11-18 and 11.8 per week needed.  Despite military activities in Russia, consultant APF-Inform expects Ukrainian wheat exports to reach a record 10.4 MMT this year, up from 9.7 million last year.  Acreage for next year will likely fall, down 6% for winter grains.  Harvest pace in Argentina moves just beyond 21%.

Last Monday’s Crop Conditions Report: US Winter Wheat CONDITIONS  60% G/E THIS WEEK,  60% LW, and 63% LY.  STATE OF IL CONDITIONS 57% G/E this week, and 60% LW. US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 95% TW, 93% LW, 99% LY, and 97% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 90% TW, 84% LW, 100% LY, and 95% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 87% TW, 83% LW, 88% LY, and 84% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED 64% TW, 52% LW, 85% LY, and 81%AVG.