COMMENTARY 11/21/16

Dry weather is taking charge from Argentina through S Brazil into the weekend, aiding planting but increasing dryness for already planted yc and ysb.  Then a strong system is expected to come through bringing 1 – 2″ of widespread accum. To the N, cool fronts trigger over the next 10 days including 30% and 45% of first-crop corn and bean production w/ 2 – 4″ of accum (twice normal).

LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 7.4′ and forecast 6.2by 11/27.  

CORN

UP 4

Pulled higher by beans.  Monday’s Inspections were avg at 34.5 vs expectations of 31-39 with 43 per week needed.  Good volumes went to the W Hemi  with 11.7 to Mexico, and 9.7 to Other W Hemisphere, but Japan was disappointing at only 4.0.

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 97% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK, 97% LAST YEAR, and 96% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK,  97 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and 98% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 26

Cash Bean Oil prices in Rotterdam reached a 3 ½ year high today with traders noting NOPA Crush draw down and the latest USDA forecast for a 7% decrease in global veg oil stocks.  Chinese bean meal also on fire.  China still needs beans to crush!  Inspections were spectacular at 98 mill bu vs expectations of 62-79 and 30.4 per week needed.  China took 70.5 and the EU at 8.6.  Imea says Brazil’s Mato Grosso is 95.5% planted. AgRural puts Brazil’s pace is 73% complete, up from 63% last week and 4 ahead of last year.  Low moisture N of Parana.  Safras says 76% comple with progress Mato Grosso at 97%, 8 points ahead of last year.

 

WHEAT

UP 2

Mixed trade.  World supplies remain ample.  Inspections were 15.8, towards the upper end of 11-18 expectations and 17.9 per week now needed.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER PLANTED: 97% THIS WEEK,  94 % LAST WEEK, 95 % LAST YEAR, and 99% AVG

IL WINTER PLANTED:  100% THIS WEEK,  95 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and  99% AVG

US WINTER EMERGED:  89% THIS WEEK,  84 % LAST WEEK, 89 % LAST YEAR, and 88% AVG

IL WINTER EMERGED:  90% THIS WEEK,  85 % LAST WEEK,  94% LAST YEAR, and  88% AVG

US WINTER CONDITION:  58% G/E   59% LAST WEEK, and 53% LY

IL WINTER CONDITION:  70% G/E   68% LAST WEEK