COMMENTARY 11/18/2016

The drought stricken US SRW gets some rain over the next 10 days, but the HRW wheat areas of the Plains remains dry.  In SA,   N Brazil’s corn and bean areas stay decently moist.  Drier weather, though is in store for S Brazil and Argentina will allow for bean planting, but will create a significant  dryness for S Brazil.

LOW WATER in the ole Miss…..

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 8.7′ and forecast 7.3by 11/23.  

CORN

UP 3

Firmer even though the $ hit a 14 yr high!  Funds seemed to be covering shorts which were increased from the last COT report. Today’s COT report showed  Large Specs increasing their short position by 66K contracts and Commercial longs reduced their short hedges by some 70K contracts.  In SA, 40% of the Argentine crop is planted, which is about 8 behind average.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: Increasingly Negative:  Bullish, 19% TW (25% LW), Bearish 48% (25% LW), and Neutral  33% (50% LW)

BEANS     

UP 4

Better despite that SA weather looks good and the possibility of early beans hitting the world market continues. The USDA announced a 165 K MT sale to China.  The Buenos Aires Exchange has progress at 24% vs a normal avg of 30-31%. Parana, Brazil is 89% complete, 2% ahead of last year and has 98% rated Good/Excellent.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: More Negative:  Bullish, 33% TW (50% LW), Bearish 29% (19% LW), and Neutral 38% (31% LW)

WHEAT

UP 5

Still dry in the HRW areas.  Australia’s wheat protein is below average and the world end user is needing wheat with high protein.  Soft Wheat in France is 95% planted, 2 behind last year’s 97% and Emergence is at 73% vs 86% last year.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Slightly Bearish: Bullish 15% TW (25% LW), Bearish 40% (25% LW), and Neutral 45% (50% LW)

LAST MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER PLANTED: 94% THIS WEEK,  91 % LAST WEEK, 93 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER PLANTED:  95% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK,  99% LAST YEAR, and  96% AVG

US WINTER EMERGED:  84% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK, 85 % LAST YEAR, and 84% AVG

IL WINTER EMERGED:  85% THIS WEEK,  78 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and  80% AVG

US WINTER CONDITION:  59% G/E   58% LAST WEEK, and 52% LY

IL WINTER CONDITION:  68% G/E   69% LAST WEEK