COMMENTARY 11/17/16

 

The first strong winter storm is headed for SD, NW MN, and parts of ND with 3 – 6″ of wet snow likely widespread and some areas to get 10+”.  Wheat areas are dry so some moist would be great.  Locally, rain coming in tomorrow, then cooler.  In SA, some 40-50% of the first crop corn and bean acres are getting widespread rain with accums up to 3″ – 6″.

We ARE now talking LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 8.6′ and forecast 7.2by 11/23.  

CORN

UP 3

Choppy again with Dec fut closing just below 3.42 resistance at the 100 day avg. The US$ Index, which was higher for the 9th day in a row. Positive export news did help support with Export Sales at 65.4 mill bu vs expectations of 35 – 47. Then, they reported a sale of 106K MTs to unknown. Keep an eye on weather in Argentina. as the BA Exchange notes recent heavy rains in certain areas of the country that could now delay planting and potentially lower yield potential.

 

BEANS     

UP 4

Better.  China continues to buy our US beans,  but Brazil is becoming more competitive for late Jan. As the value of the $ goes up vs other countries currencies, South American beans become easier for other countries to buy vs the US’s.  World buyers WILL be watching to see if Brazil’s early planted beans will be available for Jan/Feb vessel shipments vs their normal Feb/Mar.  China is believed to still need to buy some 2-3 MMT for Dec and up to 4 MMT for Jan.  SA weather is relatively non threatening as drier, cooler weather is expected for Argentina, S Brazil, and Paraguay in the next 10 days. N Brazil is expected to get some an additional 2.5 – 5.0 rains.  Thursday’s Export Sales were 52.1 mill bu vs expectations of 44 – 55 mill.  A Memphis based analyst is suggesting that US beans acres may be 5.0 mill higher to 88.6 and yc and srw acreage will be lower.   There is still 5 mo for folks to change their minds.

 

WHEAT

UP 6

Weather forecasts don’t look real promising for relief from the dryness for winter wheat acreage.  More dry weather is expected across the SE US next month. West Texas too continues to be extremely dry with record warm temps. Informa’s 2017 winter wheat acreage estimate, was lowered 1.7 million acres  to 33.76 mill. If the West stays dry, how many acres might actually get harvested??  Thursday’s Export Sales were 22 mill bu vs expectations of 15 -22 and helped lend support.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER PLANTED: 94% THIS WEEK,  91 % LAST WEEK, 93 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER PLANTED:  95% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK,  99% LAST YEAR, and  96% AVG

US WINTER EMERGED:  84% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK, 85 % LAST YEAR, and 84% AVG

IL WINTER EMERGED:  85% THIS WEEK,  78 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and  80% AVG

US WINTER CONDITION:  59% G/E   58% LAST WEEK, and 52% LY

IL WINTER CONDITION:  68% G/E   69% LAST WEEK