COMMENTARY 11/17/14

St Louis river levels DROPPING at +6.6 ft  and forecast to be 5.1 by 11/22.  Mile Marker 632 – 635 CLOSED Fri 11/7 to daylight traffic for up to 14 days.  The Army Corps of Engineers is doing a matting project which was postponed until Dec but is now going forward.  This could be a giant wrinkle in an already taxed freight system during a record harvest.  It will slow loads moving south and empties moving north and cost a full tow as much as a 75 mile setback. The Upper Miss will start closing early this week and the Mid Miss the following week (this is a week earlier than normal due to low water and the Polar Vortex).  As the export transportation pipeline shrinks, it stresses the lower system to perform.

In South America, storms for various areas of areas of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay the next 7-10 days.  Due to the widespread rains, there are no significant weather-related concerns.  Argentina could use additional and a little less rain would be ideal in Paraguay, and mixed conditions should persist in Brazil.   Both the GFS and European models are wet across much of these areas over the next 7-10 days while the extended outlook is towards the drier side.

CORN      

DOWN 4         

Guess what?  FUND SELLING!  Funds sold 7,000 contracts 35 mill bu today, right after a cold-wintery-late-harvest-straggler type weekend.  Export Inspections were very disappointing at only 15.8 mbu.  This was well below expectations of 26-33 and 35.2 per week needed.   Sales NEED to be 30 million+ per week going forward.  Informa’s 2015 acreage estimates, increased corn acres this spring to 88.3 million. This is up from their previous estimate of 87.8 million (the same number they are now using for beans).

 The market has moved nearly 50 cents higher during October on no real change in fundamentals.    Don’t allow Fund buying to make you too bullish, preventing you from making PROFITABLE sales.  One should look to improve upon existing sales.  (Lock in some of these higher values for Dec, Jan, Feb, & Mar). This is a great time to make up for not having much sold prior to harvest.!  One should also have offers in to take advantage of a higher board, should one materialize.

Monday’s Crop Progress report   US HARVESTED 89% TW, 80% LW, 90% LY%, and 88% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 94% TW, 87% LW, 95% LY, and 89% AVG.

 

BEANS     

UP 14   

Strong exports and a slightly supportive crush lift futures.  Export Inspections reached a new record at a WHOPPING 114.4 mbu.  This surpasses the 102 from a couple of weeks ago.  China was a significant party taking 89 million with the other 25+ is not to be sneezed at.   NOPA crush rose to 158 mbu, topping the 150.8 average trade estimate.  This was the largest Sep to Oct increase ever! Oil stocks were pegged at 966 million lbs, well short of the 1.064 bil lb trade average.  The USDA reports China buys 111 K MT of US soybeans for delivery in 14/15.  South American Meal is now MUCH cheaper than that of the US.  Informa’s new crop acreage was trimmed to 210K acres.

Monday’s   US BEANS HARVESTED 94% TW, 90%LW, 94% LY, and 96% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 95% THIS WEEK, 91% LW, 98% LY 97% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 9

Lower with corn.  The weather outlook sees less chance of extreme cold in the Plains the next 7-10 days while bringing ample rain to U.S. SRW areas.  The French soft wheat crop is looking good.  Export Inspections were weaker yet at only 5.1 million. Expectations were 9-14.   This week’s total was short of the 18 per week implied rate.  France says 84% of the Soft Wheat crop has emerged, up 15 points from LW and 12 points ahead of LY.   94% is in G/E condition, down a point from LW, but 8 above a year ago.  Russia has planted 16.5  million hectares to winter grains, up 2 million from a year ago.  Last week, Informa increased their winter wheat acreage at 400 k today, with the new number essentially unchanged from last year’s final number.  

Monday’s Crop Conditions Report had US Winter Wheat CONDITIONS  60% G/E THIS WEEK,  60% LW, and 63% LY.  STATE OF IL CONDITIONS 57% G/E this week, and 60% LW. US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 95% TW, 93% LW, 99% LY, and 97% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 90% TW, 84% LW, 100% LY, and 95% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 87% TW, 83% LW, 88% LY, and 84% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED 64% TW, 52% LW, 85% LY, and 81%AVG.