COMMENTARY 11/16/16

A strong system produces the first snowstorm of the season near SD, NW MN, and parts of ND with 3 – 6″ of wet snow likely.  Wheat areas are dry so some weather would be ideal.  Locally, rain coming in on Fri.  In SA, some 40-50% of the first crop corn and bean acres are getting widespread rain with accums up to 3″ – 6″.

Soon, very soon, we may be talking about LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 8.8′ and forecast 7.5by 11/24.  

CORN

DOWN 1

Choppy with a stronger dollar weighing down attempts to rally.  Ethanol for fuel increased 15K barrels/day last week after a decline of 20 K ba/day the week before.  A Production of 1,017K ba/day was up 4.3% from last year.  The EIA report showed demand for gas increased 1.6% last week and was 3.4% higher than last year. Thurs’s Export Sales are expected to be 35-47 mill bu with at least 28.6 needed per week.

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 93% THIS WEEK,  86 % LAST WEEK, 95% LAST YEAR, and 92% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK,  94 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and 96% AVG

 

BEANS     

DOWN 4

SA’s Brazil crop is off to a pretty good start and Argentina’s forecast is looking better for planting conditions. Aside from the N areas of Brazil, most areas are growing decent and/or drying to let field work resume.  The  USDA did announce another sale of 165KMT to China, but also, the Yuan is at an 8 yr high vs the value of the US $.  Dollar strength is now going to test our relationship with our new bean customers.  As the value of the $ goes up vs other countries currencies, South American beans become easier for other countries to buy vs the US’s.  World buyers WILL be watching to see if Brazil’s early planted beans will be available for Jan/Feb vessel shipments vs their normal Feb/Mar.  Thurs’s Export Sales are expected to be 44 – 55 mill bu with just 16.3 needed per week.

 

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 97% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK, 97 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK,  95 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and  97% AVG

WHEAT

STEADY

Mixed and looking for something new to talk about. Funds sold an estimated 3,000 contracts today.  A wet mix of rain and and wet snow in store for SD and MN Thur night and Fri which includes some of the dry HRW wheat areas.  The dry wheat in the Plains is STILL dry.  Thurs’s Export Sales are thought to range between 15 – 22 mill bu  with 12.0 needed per week.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER PLANTED: 94% THIS WEEK,  91 % LAST WEEK, 93 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER PLANTED:  95% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK,  99% LAST YEAR, and  96% AVG

US WINTER EMERGED:  84% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK, 85 % LAST YEAR, and 84% AVG

IL WINTER EMERGED:  85% THIS WEEK,  78 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and  80% AVG

US WINTER CONDITION:  59% G/E   58% LAST WEEK, and 52% LY

IL WINTER CONDITION:  68% G/E   69% LAST WEEK