COMMENTARY 11/15/16

A strong system produces the first snowstorm of the season near SD, NW MN, and parts of ND with 3 – 6″ of wet snow likely.  Wetter weather would be ideal with 54% and 49% of U.S. HRW and SRW wheat production has been drier than normal the last 60 days.  Locally, rain coming in on Fri.  There really isn’t any reason to still have a combine in the field.  Is there??  In SA, some 40-50% of the first crop corn and bean acres are getting widespread rain with accum to measure 3″ – 6″.  A few storms are forecast for N Argentina, S Brazil and Paraguay through Wed.

Soon, very soon, we may be talking about LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 9.6′ and forecast 7.5by 11/22.  

CORN

UP 4

Short covering.  Yesterday’s Harvest Progress at 93% compared to 86% last week, 95% last year and the 5 yr avg of 92%.  One consultant expects the potential for Brazil Production to reach 91.0 MMT for 2016/17 compared to just 66.0 in 15/16.  As much as 100% of safrinha double crop corn MAY get planted ideally vs just 60% ideal last year.

 

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 93% THIS WEEK,  86 % LAST WEEK, 95% LAST YEAR, and 92% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK,  94 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and 96% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 5

Weaker most of the day until the VERY end.  Export sales announcements helped support.  Another 121,500 MT to China and 126,000 to Unknown.  NOPA crush came out today at 164.6 mill bu…the 3rd largest EVER!  Most analysts were expecting crush to be 160.5 which helped contribute to today’s bullishness despite the strength of the $.

 

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 97% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK, 97 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK,  95 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and  97% AVG

WHEAT

UP 5

Short covering. The market was able to ignore the stronger US $ which is now approaching a 52 week high! Rain is likely for at least SOME of our US wheat later in the week and snow for some parts of the Corn Belt, and Plains next Tue.  Iraq should be back in the market for wheat after being absent for the last 6 mo.  Russian wheat prices are the highest they’ve been in over 5 months. Part of this rally is due to Russia spending some 2.5 billion Rubles buying grain from the farmer to build up their reserve stocks.  Black Sea demand has been solid.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER PLANTED: 94% THIS WEEK,  91 % LAST WEEK, 93 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER PLANTED:  95% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK,  99% LAST YEAR, and  96% AVG

US WINTER EMERGED:  84% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK, 85 % LAST YEAR, and 84% AVG

IL WINTER EMERGED:  85% THIS WEEK,  78 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and  80% AVG

US WINTER CONDITION:  59% G/E   58% LAST WEEK, and 52% LY

IL WINTER CONDITION:  68% G/E   69% LAST WEEK