COMMENTARY 11/14/16

Good harvest weather over the weekend for the N US.  In SA, some 40-50% of the first crop corn and bean acres are getting widespread rain with accum to measure 3″ – 6″.  A few storms are forecast for N Argentina, S Brazil and Paraguay through Wed.-Thu but dry for S Arg.

Soon, very soon, we may be talking about LOW river levels…..

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 9.6′ and forecast 8.8by 11/18.  

CORN

DOWN 3

Concern about stronger US $ potentially hurting exports (eventually). Export Inspection for Mon were light at 24.3 vs expectations of 35-43 mill and compares to 36.6 last week and just 15.0 last year.  A Sales Announcement was made for 170K MT of Milo to China.  Harvest Progress is moving along and just above normal!

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 93% THIS WEEK,  86 % LAST WEEK, 95% LAST YEAR, and 92% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK,  94 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and 96% AVG

 

BEANS     

DOWN 2

The values of the $ took its toll here too, although most was nullified by good exports.  Export inspections for week ending Nov 10 were hearty at 102.3 mill bu vs expectations of 92 -110 and compares to 98.2 last week and 82.3 last year.  A new Sales was announced of 324K MT with 132K going to China and the balance to Unknown.  Above normal Progress today!

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 97% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK, 97 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK,  95 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and  97% AVG

WHEAT

DOWN 9

A lower twist with the higher US$. Dry weather persists in all US winter wheat areas through Thurs, but there is hope for a shower as we get into the weekend. Today’s Export Inspections were small at just 7 mill bu vs expectations of 15 – 22 and 18.8 last week.  Progress numbers below look real good!

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER PLANTED: 94% THIS WEEK,  91 % LAST WEEK, 93 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER PLANTED:  95% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK,  99% LAST YEAR, and  96% AVG

US WINTER EMERGED:  84% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK, 85 % LAST YEAR, and 84% AVG

IL WINTER EMERGED:  85% THIS WEEK,  78 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and  80% AVG

US WINTER CONDITION:  59% G/E   58% LAST WEEK, and 52% LY

IL WINTER CONDITION:  68% G/E   69% LAST WEEK