COMMENTARY 11/11/12

Decent post harvest weather in the States!  In SA, several cool fronts move into N Brazil resulting in heavy accum from 3″ – 6″ over the next 10 days.  This should also include parts of Center W and the dry areas of the SE as well.  Argentina, S Brazil, and Paraguay are also now expecting some light showers.  Drier weather is expected later (7-10 days) as a new high pressure system rolls through.

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 11.3′ and forecast 9.7by 11/17.  

CORN

DOWN 3

Weaker as US harvest wraps up in the N and currency valuations are creating ripples.  With the NAFTA talk the last couple days, the Canadian $ and SA currencies were both weaker while the USD index was higher. The Chinese yuan, too, continues to weaken. With the US $ strengthening  vs the Brazilian Real, many are expecting additional increases in Brazil safrinha, double crop corn plantings in Jan/Feb. Back in the good ol US, harvest is all over, but the cryin’!  Harvest is expected to be 92-95% complete for Mon afternoon’s Progress Report.

  

BEANS     

DOWN 12

Lots going on!!  Strong overnight and early this am …..until Gold tanked like a rock and the bottom dropped out of the Asian Dalian!  The US $ was stronger again today, yet the Brazilian Real now dropped more than 5% this week!!   Keep an eye PEELED on Dalian meal & bean futures next week. There are concerns that weaknening Chinese markets COULD potentially hinder US export demand going forward.  Due to today’s Veterans holiday, the COT report will be out Mon.  Despite the sell offs we’ve had the last three days, the Funds are still thought to be holding a sizeable LONG position. Funds sold 12,000 contracts of beans, 3,500 contracts of meal, and 5,000 contracts of oil today! Our US harvest is likely to be 94-97% complete on Mon compared to 97% last year and a 5 yr avg of 95%.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 2

Mixed and STILL looking for news.  Egypt purchased another Russian wheat cargo, but World prices are increasing which should help generate interest in the US. The Central US is dry and mild for the winter wheat areas through next Thur.  A chance for rain is possible by NEXT weekend, but big totals are not likely this far out.