COMMENTARY 5/31/17

Cool and mild for the next 10 days with some chance of showers with decent coverage. Spring wheat areas should receive needed rain, while all other areas should stay wet into the middle of the month.   In SA,  heavy rains focus on S Brazil, affecting their wheat and a small amount of corn production.  Deluges of 4 – 11″ are SURE to cause significant flood issues.

CORN

UP 5

The market is switching gears and is now concerned with the less than ideal start to the season.  Our Good/ Excellent rating yest was 3  less than the avg expectation. The last 3 sub 70% ratings for the end of May have seen final yields come in about 7 bu below trend in the past. China looks to be in for another 10 days of hot/dry.

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:    91% TW, 84% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:    93% TW, 89% LW, 93% LY, and 96% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   73%TW,  54% LW,  75% LY, and 75% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   80% TW, 67% LW,86% LY, and 86% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  65% G/E,  na% LW, and 72% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, na% LW

BEANS

UP 3

Planting was 67% last night. The weather we’ve been receiving IS contrary to the forecasts and we seem to have an opportunity to allow planters to move again. In the E corn still needs to be planted……OR acres could switch to beans. Chinese crush margins based off of Brazil beans, is down $5.00 for the week, to negative $35.  This is the lowest since Jul 14. The Chinese DO love to cancel!

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 67% TW, 53% LW, 71% TY, and 68% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    62% TW, 48% LW, 69% LY, and 71% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   37%TW,  19% LW,  42% LY, and 40% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   38% TW, 18% LW, 41% LY, and 47% AVG

WHEAT

UNCHANGED

Mixed as HRS ratings got off to a rough start yesterday coming out at the 6th lowest level in 30 years! Much of our HRS areas have seen 40% or less of the average rainfall in the last 45 days.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   80% TW, 72% LW, 83% LY, and 77% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    98% TW, 94% LW, 93% LY, and 91% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 50% G/E, 52% LW, and 63% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 51% G/E, 44% LW – a 7% increase!