COMMENTARY 10/31/16

US harvest progresses with a chance of showers for the Central Belt Wed into Thur.  In SA, showers will limite corn/bean planting for N Goias, N Mato Grosso, and Matopiba.  Additional moisture is forecast for Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana.  Rio Grande do Sul  is expected 2 ½” – 3” later in the week.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 12.2′ and forecast 13.0by 11/3.  

CORN

UNCHANGED

Lower early on ideas that harvest is proceeding well, but firmer as wheat moved higher. The USDA announced  a 101 K corn sale to Barbados and an 111 K MT milo sale to China.  Monday’s Export Inspections were mid range at 31.2 vs expectations of 28-35 mill bu and 42.4 needed per week.  Harvest Progress was thought to be 72% but we are actually higher! (See actuals below).

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 75% THIS WEEK,  61 % LAST WEEK, 82% LAST YEAR, and 75% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  91% THIS WEEK,  83 % LAST WEEK,  95% LAST YEAR, and 85% AVG

 

BEANS     

UNCHANGED

Traded both sides this am.  Export Inspections were hearty! A whopping 105.4 mill vs expectations of 81-98.  This is the first consecutive 100 mill bu since Nov 14′.  Even more bean demand as the USDA announced a 264 K MT sale to China.  Harvest was est to be 83% this afternoon and we topped yhat by an additional 4%.  (See Actuals below) Safras & Mercado believe Brazil is 38+% planted, up from 26% last week and vs 27.5% last year.  Mato Grosso is planting very fast at 68% vs a 5 yr avg of 49%.  Ag Rural est their  pace at 41%, up 10 year to year and in line with their 5 year avg of 41%.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 87% THIS WEEK,  76 % LAST WEEK, 91 % LAST YEAR, and 85% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  89% THIS WEEK,  76 % LAST WEEK,  95% LAST YEAR, and  88% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 7

Firmer with the smaller Australia crop and Fund buying.  Export Inspections were mid range at  12.0 vs expectations of  9-17 with 17.7 per week.  US wheat planting is moving right along (see below).  Logistics continue to plague both the Russia and Ukraine’s export programs.  Russian exports dropped from 440 K MT to 250 K.  Conditions are WAY better than expected!  Low water on both of Germany’s Rhine and Danube rivers has load reductions up to 40%.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER PLANTED: 86% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK, 87 % LAST YEAR, and 88% AVG

IL WINTER PLANTED:  85% THIS WEEK,  68 % LAST WEEK,  88% LAST YEAR, and  82% AVG

US WINTER EMERGED:  70% THIS WEEK,  60 % LAST WEEK, 69 % LAST YEAR, and 69% AVG

IL WINTER EMERGED:  63% THIS WEEK,  38 % LAST WEEK,  65% LAST YEAR, and  54% AVG

US WINTER CONDITION:  58% G/E   59% LAST WEEK, and 49% LY

IL WINTER CONDITION:  69% G/E   59% LAST WEEK