COMMENTARY 10/30/15

The 6-10 day  outlook is wetter in the East and the 11-15 suggesting more moisture in the SW.  Great Plains outlook is unchanged and 11-15 day is wetter for the Central growing regions.  In South America yesterday, Mato Grosso, Goias and northern Mato Grosso do Sul recv’d  anywhere from a 1/4″ to 1″ accum with Argentina too receiving similar showers. Forecasts call for rains of 1-2” over central Brazil over the next five days and some weekend rains expected for E Australia wheat growing regions of Ukraine and Russia stay dry through the week. 

St Louis river level SLIGHTLY HIGHER at +3.1 and forecast  to be 5.2 by  11/4  (Flood Stage is 30.0)   Next topics – Rock Pinnacles and shallow barge drafts.

CORN

UP 2

Strength in wheat and beans boosted as well as the weakness in the dollar. Gains were pressured by ideas the crop MAY get larger  in Nov.  River freight has been getting cheaper by the day and the Gulf is not in need of grain so barges may get parked on the bank.  There is also an upswing in vessel numbers in favor of the PNW and fewer due to arrive at the Gulf.  Monday’s crop progress is expected to be 81% harvested, up from 75% last week, 62% last year, and 79% avg.  In South America the BA Exchange is reporting a 1 point increase in Argentine corn planting to 33.4%, slightly behind last year’s 36% pace.  Brazil’s largest producing corn state, Mato Grosso is thought to be 88% sold for 2015 and 45% for 2016.  China failed to sell any corn from their state reserves over the course of the recent 2-day auction.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 23% (46% LW), Bearish 46% (19% LW), Neutral 32% (35% LW)

LAST MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED:   75% TW,  59% LW, 44% LY, and 68% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  93% TW, 85% LW, 57% LY, and 79% AVG

 BEANS     

UP 5

Boosted by another Daily Sales Announcement with 120 K SB sold to China.    Monday’s US bean harvest is estimated to be up 4 points to 93%, 12 ahead of last year and 4 above avg.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 23% (46%); Bearish, 46% (31%); Neutral, 24% (18%)

LAST MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

  US HARVESTED:  87% TW, 77 %LW, 68% LY, and 80% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED: 93% TW, 85 %LW, 59 % LY, and 82% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 7  

Dry weather in some Black Sea growing regions and excess rain in S Australia is feared to be compromising quality.  Monday’s winter wheat is expected to be 88% planted, up 5 points and vs 89% last year and 90% avg.  No rain is expected in Ukraine for at least two more weeks.

Bloomberg  Trader Bias:  Bullish 32% (31% LW), Bearish 46% (23% LW), and Neutral 23% (46% LW)

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  83 G/E , 76 % LW,  83% LY, and 85% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  84 % G/E, 63 %  LW, 38% LY, and 74% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  62% TW, 49 % LW,  65% LY, and 62% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  55% TW, 33 %  LW, 17% LY, and 41% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  47 G/E , na % LW, and  59% LY.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  58 % G/E,  0 %  LW, and 58% LY