COMMENTARY 10/29/15

Last night brought showers and snow to MN and WI.  Another ½ to 1” of rain should move across the S Plains into tomorrow.  The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for normal moisture for the grain regions.   In South America, Brazil received ¼ to ½” in the N yesterday, Argentina had similar coverage to the S.  Rains are in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina with the Central regions receiving 1-2” next week. The Ukraine and Russia are still dry.

St Louis river level SLIGHTLY HIGHER at +3.2 and forecast  to be 4.6 by  11/3  (Flood Stage is 30.0)   Next topics – Rock Pinnacles and shallow barge drafts.

CORN

UP 4 

A market response to a surprise! -Great Export Sales! …..at 27.9 mill bu, ABOVE expectations of 12-20.Mexico accounted for 11.8 of the total. The remaining 3.2 went to W Hemisphere & other Unknown destinations.  Japan cancelled 720 K.  From here on out we need  need 30.1 per week. Yesterday’s lower market was spurred predominately from Fund selling.  They sold 8,000 contract of yc, 8,000 contracts of ysb, and 3,000 contracts of wheat.  Still more talk about China temporarily halting imports of U.S. DDGS.  Two South American vessels carrying ethanol ARE scheduled to come into the US in the next week.

MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED:   75% TW,  59% LW, 44% LY, and 68% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  93% TW, 85% LW, 57% LY, and 79% AVG

 BEANS     

DOWN 3

Futures falter despite a surprising strong export sales report—beans, meal and oil.  Export Sales were again strong at 76.7 and above the 59-73 expectations. China bought 52 and the EU bought 11.4 of the total.  Just 14.9 per week are needed.  Meal Sales were routine at 219  vs expectations of 150-350 126 needed per week.  Bean Oil was VERY strong at 82.1 K vs expectations of 30-60 and just 10.8/week needed.   The Trade is expecting 0-300 bean contacts to be delivered on Friday.

MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

  US HARVESTED:  87% TW, 77 %LW, 68% LY, and 80% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED: 93% TW, 85 %LW, 59 % LY, and 82% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 9  

Solid Export Sales and dryness in Russia.  Export Sales were ABOVE expectations at 20.2 vs 13-20 expected with South Korea,  Philippines and Thailand all buying between 2.8 – 3.5 mbu each.  Sales of 12.3 per week are now needed.   The Russian Grain Union believes that the total upcoming grain prod could fall 12 MMT due to their extremely dry conditions.  Some parts of Western Russia have received LESS than 60% of their normal Oct moisture.  Swiss Grain group Solaris Commodities is expecting Russian wheat harvest to fall from 60 MMT this year, to 55 next yr.  Unfavorable Australian weather has led IGC to trim its 15/16 global wheat forecast by 1 MMT to 726, an increase of 5 MMT 14′.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  83 G/E , 76 % LW,  83% LY, and 85% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  84 % G/E, 63 %  LW, 38% LY, and 74% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  62% TW, 49 % LW,  65% LY, and 62% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  55% TW, 33 %  LW, 17% LY, and 41% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  47 G/E , na % LW, and  59% LY.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  58 % G/E,  0 %  LW, and 58% LY