COMMENTARY 10/28/2016

A few more showers in the E Corn Belt but favorable harvest for the rest of the Midwest until at least the middle of NEXT week.  The Great Plains is still  unfavorable dry into Nov.  In SA, SW Parana and SE Paraguay are seeing heavy accum, slowing planting, raising concerns about wheat quality. Drier weather is on tap for S Brazil through Sun, which will be great to get wheat harvest completed. Rains return early next week. Arg should get rain over the next week into early November. 

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 12.0′ and forecast 12.1by 11/1.  

CORN

DOWN 2

No fund buying today, very quiet as we head into a harvest weekend.  Freight was higher nearby accordingly, going home.  We’ll see new harvest progress on Mon!  The BA Exchange has Arg planting at 36% complete, just one point in gain from last week and three ahead of last year.  No change is expected for  the crop acreage at 4.9 million ha, up 27%.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:   Bullish: 21% TW 33% LW,  Bearish 21% TW 25% LW, Neutral: 58% TW 41% LW

 

BEANS     

DOWN 13

Good bean cutting forecast and no Fund buying!  Harvest Progress is to thought to be 83% compete Mon vs 76% LW, 92% LY,  and 85% Avg.  Mato Grosso, Brazil is 67% planted, TWICE last year.  NE Brazil is still too dry and S Brazil is too wet and needs to  dry out before planting can resume.  Argentina is just barely 1-2% planted vs 4-5% normally due to uncommonly heavy rains and flooding.  IGC est’s the world ysb output at 332, up from 315 MMT last year and vs the last USDA at 333 TY and 313 LY.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: More Bullish!  42% TW 25% LW, Bearish: 26%TW 42% LW, Neutral 32%TW 33% LW

 

Wheat

DOWN 6

France has had a good week of wheat planting, now up 17% at 60% complete and still behind last year’s 72% complete.  Australian late season rains and frost damage is threatening the E crop, likely making it feed grade.   Also, heavy rain in Argentina has likely trimmed their crop from the USDA’s 14.4 MMT est, down to 11.5, but the BA Exchange continues with its 12.5 est.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:   Bullish: 33% TW 42% LW, Bearish 12% TW 17% LW, and Neutral 46%TW 50LW