COMMENTARY 10/28/15

 Most of the US got some showers to knock down the dust yesterday and last night.   Sat should bring showers to the Plains and Delta and for Sunday rains over the delta and Ohio River Valley.  Yesterday Brazil got 1/10 to ½ inch of accum and should receive another 1 – 2 in over the next 5 days.  Argentina should be clear by the weekend

St Louis river level SLIGHTLY HIGHER at +2.5 and forecast  to be 2.9 by  11/3  (Flood Stage is 30.0)   Next topics – Rock Pinnacles and shallow barge drafts.

CORN

DOWN 4 

Harvest pace is fast, Western facilities are filling up (with the BIG crop), and export demand is still ‘el stinko. Export sales are expected to be fairly light tomorrow. The Trade estimates range from 12-20mbu.  Chatter within the Trade has good possibilities of Mexico buying additional corn from Brazil for the March/April slots.  A 30 K MT vessel IS already scheduled for arrival nearby.  Bloomberg says China has temporarily halted imports of U.S. DDGS and may launch another “anti dumping probe” as requested by China’s ethanol companies to the Commerce Ministry.  This could be pursued as a distinct possibility.

MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED:   75% TW,  59% LW, 44% LY, and 68% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  93% TW, 85% LW, 57% LY, and 79% AVG

 BEANS     

DOWN 10

No additional sales  were made today to China, although Argentine farmers are expected to postpone further sales until their presidential elections are finalized and there is more sentiment the Argentine producer will take a wait and see attitude to additional sales between now and December.  Bean Export Sales will be out tomorrow at 8:30am and are expected to be hearty – between 59-73 million bu and on Meal, 150,000-350,000mt.  One forecaster expects up 2 ½” of rainfall could cover nearly 90% of Brazil’s soybean growing areas this week, setting the stage for a rapid pick-up in planting activity.  One private EU analyst est that South American bean exports  for the Jan/Oct 15 could be some 10 MMT greater than a year ago.

MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

  US HARVESTED:  87% TW, 77 %LW, 68% LY, and 80% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED: 93% TW, 85 %LW, 59 % LY, and 82% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 3  

Chicago found support at the $5.00 today as the market was under pressure for much of the session. Overnight rains were beneficial to our SRW and HRW acres.  At a conference in Egypt, Russian Deputy Ag Min Levin said they would consider eliminating the export tax IF the Ruble would stabilize.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  83 G/E , 76 % LW,  83% LY, and 85% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  84 % G/E, 63 %  LW, 38% LY, and 74% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  62% TW, 49 % LW,  65% LY, and 62% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  55% TW, 33 %  LW, 17% LY, and 41% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  47 G/E , na % LW, and  59% LY.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  58 % G/E,  0 %  LW, and 58% LY