COMMENTARY 10/28/14

The U.S. should see definitive harvest progress the next two weeks across the Midwest. A frontal system sweeps across the Belt through Tuesday but after that mostly dry weather is forecast through early November.   Northern Brazil will see light rain through Wed and coverage should expand to other regions. The two week outlook for Argentina is favorable with good rains occurring today through Wednesday across northern BA, Entre Rios and Corrientes.

St Louis river levels DROPPING at +13.4 ft  and forecast to be 10.0 by 11/2.

CORN                    

UP 1

Harvest progress is lagging 19 points behind average with ND, IA, WI and SD all 25% or more behind.  This supported the market most of the morning, however, early gains faded.  Monday’s Export Inspections were 27.2 vs expectations of 33-38 range with  34 per week needed.  Morgan Stanley expects Brazil corn area to fall 6% this year as soybean planting progress lags.  Argentina’s corn area is highly uncertain as some expect it down 12-20% as costs rise (USDA:  4.4% less area than LY).  Cordonnier trimmed their production forecast 1 million to 21.0 MMT from impact that inputs have on yield.

Monday’s Crop Progress report  at 74% G/E this week, 74% LW, 62%LY. The State of IL   83% G/E vs 83% LW.  US MATURE  was 96% TW, 93% LW, 97% LY, and 97% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE was 100% TW, 97% LW, 100%LY, and 98% AVG.  US HARVESTED 46% TW, 31% LW, 56% LY%, and 65% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 59% TW, 43% LW, 71% LY, and 72% AVG.

 

BEANS     

UP 2   

The feed market needs meal and unshipped sales to SE Asia are DOUBLE the estimated level from year ago due to spotty producer selling.    Cordonnier lowers Brazil estimate 1 MMT to 93.0—notes that 40-45% will be planted “outside” optimal planting window, raising yield risk due to disease, insects, and dry weather vulnerability, plus a concentrated harvest during rainy season.  Some Mato Grosso producers claiming of 20-30% fewer acres due to late start and low prices. Some areas of Mato Grosso are incurring the hottest, seasonal, driest spell in 20-30 years.   AgRural says Brazil planting is 16% complete, well off last year’s same date pace of 34%.  Monday’s Export Inspections were 80.7 which topped even the high end of the trade’s 66-79 mbu range.

Monday’s   US BEANS HARVESTED 70% TW, 53 %LW, 75% LY, and 76% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 63% THIS WEEK, 37% LW, 83% LY 77% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 8

Some see a smaller Australian wheat crop and Russian prices continue to escalate.  The early strength in c and b’s had lifted wheat but fading row crops curbed gains.  The outlook for Russia’s 2015 wheat crop deteriorates as the sliding ruble’s value could hurt planting prospects. Poor winter conditions are also noted. The slow pace of Midwest SRW planting is also lending support to futures.  Monday’s Export Inspections  were low at only 7.8 million vs expectations of 16-19 with 17 per week needed.  Inspections by class included HRS, 3.8; HRW 1.7; 1 each for SRW and Durum along with 400 K bu of Soft Wheat.  Russian 11.5% protein wheat up $5 in the past week.  Trade survey puts Australian wheat crop at 23.2, versus ABARE at 24.2 & USDA at 25.0 as frost and hail damage in Western Australia is becoming more apparent.

Informa expects U.S. producers to plant 56.4 million acres, down 400 K from this year.  The BA Grain Exchange expects this year’s crop to exceed last year’s 10.1 MMT total; the USDA is 12.0 versus 10.5 LY.

Monday’s Crop Conditions Report had US Winter Wheat CONDITIONS  59% G/E THIS WEEK,  NA% LW, and 61% LY.  STATE OF IL CONDITIONS 69% G/E this week, and 0% LW. US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 84% TW, 76% LW, 85% LY, and 84% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 41% TW, 22% LW, 86% LY, and 75% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 67% TW, 56% LW, 63% LY, and 62% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED 18% TW, 11% LW, 44% LY, and 42%AVG.