COMMENTARY 10/27/16

 Now that that round of showers has moved through, the sun is having a terrible time coming out! Next week should be great for harvest again.In SA, S Parana and Paraguay have been getting heavy accum the last 24 hrs, slowing planting and raising eyebrows about wheat quality.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 12.0′ and forecast 12.2by 11/1.  

CORN

UP 4

Fund buying on optimistic demand.  However, Thur’s Export Sales were towards the low end at 31.5 mill bu vs expectations of 35 – 47.  The big buyer was Mexico at 21.5 and Japan at a meager 2.6.  It is nice that the Funds are excited.

LAST MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 61% THIS WEEK,  46 % LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR, and 62% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 75% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 4

Traded both sides.  More sales and N/D crush margins topped $.90/bu.  Another 396 K MT sale to China and 129 K to Unknown.  Thursday’s Sales were decent at 75.2 vs expectations of 55 – 92 mill bu.  SBM sales were 146,  shy of the 200-400 expected and 157 K per week needed. SBO, 24.5 against 8-30 anticipated and 14.7 needed per week.  Soc Gen seems to doubt if whether great demand can offset our exceptional Midwest yields.  They expect SA’s La Nina to weaken…..and thusly, the avg price of beans could get as low $9.00/bu between now and Dec 31.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 76% THIS WEEK,  62 % LAST WEEK, 84 % LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK,  58 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 77% AVG

 

Wheat

UP 3

The Plains need rain.  Export Sales were in the spotlight today at 23.8 vs expectations of 13 – 20mill bu and 12 per week needed.  Taiwan, Japan, and Thailand were the buyers.  Oh, and Brazil even bought some too!  The USDA’s est for the Argentine crop at 14.1 could be compromised by heavy rain causing sprout damage and quality losses, which would slow their exports to Brazil.  Some areas have gotten up to 12″ of excess rain this month alone.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  79% THIS WEEK, 72 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 82% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  68% THIS WEEK, 43 % LAST WEEK, 78 % LAST YEAR, and 67% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  60% THIS WEEK, 47% LAST WEEK, 58% LAST YEAR, and 58% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  38 % THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 34% AVG