COMMENTARY 10/27/15

The 6-10 day outlook for the Midwest and Delta is drier.  The next rain event for HRW wheat country is expected late Thurs into Friday, with 0.40 to 1.35” and locally up to 2” of accum possible.   In South America, Brazil looks wetter over the next two weeks.  Eastern Australia has a better chance of rain this week, boosting moisture for dryland sorghum planting.

St Louis river level SLIGHTLY HIGHER at +1.4 and forecast  to be 3.1 by  11/1  (Flood Stage is 30.0)   Next topics – Rock Pinnacles and shallow barge drafts.

CORN

DOWN 5 

Harvest pace is ahead of schedule, yields holding up, and export demand needs help fast. Yesterday afternoon’s Harvest Progress showed Corn 75% harvested, 7 points ahead of average and one point above the trade estimate.  Milo is  71% harvested 10 points above the 5 year avg.  An insect infestation lead Mexico’s attaché to trim their milo crop by 650 K MT to 7.15 MMT (up from a revised 14/15 crop of 6.27).

MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED:   75% TW,  59% LW, 44% LY, and 68% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  93% TW, 85% LW, 57% LY, and 79% AVG

 BEANS     

UP 6

Bean and protein demand and mixed opinions on Brazil’s outlook for rain.  The Argentine election situation is bearish (long term) with a devaluation and an export tax policy which may be difficult to get passed.  One source says (short term) big producers may JUST WAIT a while.  US bean harvest is at 87% complete and 1 point above expectations, and  7 ahead of the of the 5 yr avg.  Safras reports Brazil is now 18% planted, trailing the average by 9 and Cordonnier lowered the Argentine bean crop est 2 MMT to 58.0 as the  return per acre is just too low in the N growing areas.

MONDAY’S CROP PROGRESS:

  US HARVESTED:  87% TW, 77 %LW, 68% LY, and 80% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED: 93% TW, 85 %LW, 59 % LY, and 82% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UNCHANGED    

Buying interest emerged early as weather issues persist in Russia and the Ukraine, as well as in the Southern US Plains, but failed to hold. Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed winter wheat at 47% G/E, which is well below last year at 59% and the 5-year of 50%. Some 83% of the crop has been planted, 2 less than expected, but the same as last year and 2 below avg.  In KS, over 50% of the topsoil is rated short or very short  moisture, vs just 27% a year ago.  Dryness and freezing temps continue to hamper the Russian and Ukraine wheat crop development according to MARS.  Some area are also contending with excessive rains in the wheat areas of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania.  One South American, reports excessive rains are reducing the the RGDS wheat crop to feed quality.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  83 G/E , 76 % LW,  83% LY, and 85% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  84 % G/E, 63 %  LW, 38% LY, and 74% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  62% TW, 49 % LW,  65% LY, and 62% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  55% TW, 33 %  LW, 17% LY, and 41% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  47 G/E , na % LW, and  59% LY.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  58 % G/E,  0 %  LW, and 58% LY