COMMENTARY 10/27/14

The 6-10 day NWS is slightly wetter but overall should remain conducive to harvest.  Good weekend rains reported in Mato Grosso with decent amounts forecast for the rest of the week.

St Louis river levels DROPPING at +13.4 ft  and forecast to be 10.8 by 11/21.

CORN                    

UP 10

A GREAT weekend of harvest activity, just in time for some Fund buying.  Money coming in from energies?  Export Inspections this am were 27.2 vs expectations of 33-38 range with  34 per week needed.  Argentine farmers have 30% of their expected corn area planted, 5 points ahead of last year’s pace.  Some are concerned about the Brazil corn potential given the slow start to soybeans and high cost/low returns.  Ukraine Exports remain sluggish:  747 K MT  Oct 1-21, vs 1.3 MMT for all of October 2013.

Monday’s Crop Progress report  at 74% G/E this week, 74% LW, 62%LY. The State of IL   83% G/E vs 83% LW.  US MATURE  was 96% TW, 93% LW, 97% LY, and 97% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE was 100% TW, 97% LW, 100%LY, and 98% AVG.  US HARVESTED 46% TW, 31% LW, 56% LY%, and 65% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 59% TW, 43% LW, 71% LY, and 72% AVG.

 

BEANS     

UP 28    

Hefty bean exports, additional sales,  and a large number of  South American bean vessels loading.  Export Inspections were 80.7 which topped even the high end of the trade’s 66-79 mbu range. China lifted nearly 64 mbu and YTD shipments to non-China destinations are approximately 20%/20 mbu ABOVE the 13/14 pace.  AgRural says Brazil planting is 16% complete, well off last year’s same date pace of 34%.  Some areas of Mato Grosso are incurring the hottest, seasonal, driest spell in 20-30 years.

Monday’s   US BEANS HARVESTED 70% TW, 53 %LW, 75% LY, and 76% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 63% THIS WEEK, 37% LW, 83% LY 77% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 5

The outlook for Russia’s 2015 wheat crop deteriorates as the sliding ruble’s value could hurt planting prospects. Poor winter conditions are also noted. The slow pace of Midwest SRW planting also helped lift futures.  Export Inspections  were low at only 7.8 million vs expectations of 16-19 with 17 per week needed.  Inspections by class included HRS, 3.8; HRW 1.7; 1 each for SRW and Durum along with 400 K bu of Soft Wheat.  Russian 11.5% protein wheat up $5 in the past week.  Trade survey puts Australian wheat crop at 23.2, versus ABARE at 24.2 & USDA at 25.0 as frost and hail damage in Western Australia become more apparent.

Informa expects U.S. producers to plant 56.4 million acres, down 400 K from this year.  The BA Grain Exchange expects this year’s crop to exceed last year’s 10.1 MMT total; the USDA is 12.0 versus 10.5 LY.

Monday’s Crop Conditions Report had US Winter Wheat CONDITIONS  59% G/E THIS WEEK,  NA% LW, and 61% LY.  STATE OF IL CONDITIONS 69% G/E this week, and 0% LW. US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 84% TW, 76% LW, 85% LY, and 84% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 41% TW, 22% LW, 86% LY, and 75% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 67% TW, 56% LW, 63% LY, and 62% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED 18% TW, 11% LW, 44% LY, and 42%AVG.