COMMENTARY 10/26/16

Aside from this afternoon’s showers, the Midwest should continue with favorable field conditions the next 10 days.   The Great Plains should stay uncomfortably dry through early Nov.  In SA, Mato Grosso and Sao Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul should be wet for the next five days and still need additional and temps should be seasonably moderate.  NE Brazil temps are expected to stay warm and Argentina will see some rain into early Nov.  Too much rain could have a negative impact on Argentina and Brazil’s wheat crop.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 12.0′ and forecast 12.2by 11/1.  

CORN

UP 5

Took their lead from ysb’s.  The US Grain Council expects Brazil to buy some from the US corn to be sold to Brazil as speculation is drawn for Dec-Feb deliv.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 35 – 47 mill bu.

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 61% THIS WEEK,  46 % LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR, and 62% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 75% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 19

There’s nothing quite like Fund and technical buying right smack dab in harvest!  Today’s showers will also have lent support.  Some say demand is even better than that which has been supported.  Freight nearby is still questionably firm again.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 55 – 92 mill bu.  That’s QUITE a range!

 

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 76% THIS WEEK,  62 % LAST WEEK, 84 % LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK,  58 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 77% AVG

 

Wheat

UP 7

The Plains are dry and Fund buying doesn’t hurt either!  Funds bought some 4,500 contracts today!  Russia’s wheat crop is even bigger than originally speculated.  Thursday’s Export numbers are thought to range between 13 – 20 mill bu.

 

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  79% THIS WEEK, 72 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 82% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  68% THIS WEEK, 43 % LAST WEEK, 78 % LAST YEAR, and 67% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  60% THIS WEEK, 47% LAST WEEK, 58% LAST YEAR, and 58% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  38 % THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 34% AVG