COMMENTARY 10/26/15

Another good weekend for harvest activity has a lot of areas wrapped up and others on the down hill side.  The Midwest should get two storms bringing significant rain and the Delta is at risk of severe flooding. Weather conditions in Brazil should get a bit wetter over the next two weeks and include the Center West and far North crop areas.

St Louis river level LOW & STEADY at +1.9 and forecast  to be 2.1 by  10/31  (Flood Stage is 30.0)   Next topics – Rock Pinnacles and shallow barge drafts.

CORN

UP 5 

Higher on bleed over from wheat.  Exports are still sluggish and Inspections this am were just 16.3 vs expectations of 19 – 27 mill bu and 37.8 per week still needed.  On a positive note, Morgan Stanley expects export demand to pick up end of 2015/early 2016 as Brazil supplies dwindle.  Today’s Crop Progress has the market expecting harvest to reach 73-75%, up from 59% last week, 44% last year, and 68% avg.  See below for actuals. 

US HARVESTED:   75% TW,  59% LW, 44% LY, and 68% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  93% TW, 85% LW, 57% LY, and 79% AVG

 BEANS     

DOWN 11

Argentina’s election is raising the possibility that the Peronists may be exiting office and in turn having a smaller government role.   There was another Daily Sales Announcement of 120  K sold to China for 15/16 delivery.  Monday’s Export Inspections were gi-normous at 98.2  vs 66 – 83 mill bu expected and only  30.1/week needed.  China took 65 million of that total with very healthy amounts going to the EU 7.4, Middle East 5.1, and the W Hemisphere at 8.9.  It MAY be possible forQ1 exports to surpass last year by 50 mbu.  This afternoons Harvest Progress is expected to be 85-88% complete this afternoon, up from 77% last week, 96%last year, and 80% for the five yr avg.  See actuals below.   AgRural estimates that Brazil’s producers have planted 20% of the crop (4 points ahead of the 2014 pace).

  US HARVESTED:  87% TW, 77 %LW, 68% LY, and 80% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED: 93% TW, 85 %LW, 59 % LY, and 82% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 18    

 Today’s activity suggests that there may have been several large speculators short.  Export Inspections were just  11.7 and barely above the low end of the trade’s 11-17 mbu range.  Winter wheat planting is expected to be 84-86% complete vs 76% last week, 84% last year, and 85% avg.  See below for actuals.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  83 G/E , 76 % LW,  83% LY, and 85% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  84 % G/E, 63 %  LW, 38% LY, and 74% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  62% TW, 49 % LW,  65% LY, and 62% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT EMERGED:  55% TW, 33 %  LW, 17% LY, and 41% Avg.

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  47 G/E , na % LW, and  59% LY.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITION:  58 % G/E,  0 %  LW, and 58% LY