COMMENTARY 10/25/16

The Midwest should continue with favorable conditions for fieldwork over the next 10 days, minus the exception for a chance of showers tomorrow.  The Great Plains should stay uncomfortably dry through early Nov.  In SA, Mato Grosso and Sao Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul should be wet for the next five days and still need additional and temps should be seasonably moderate.  NE Brazil temps are expected to stay warm and Argentina will see some rain into early Nov.  Too much rain could have a negative impact on Argentina and Brazil’s wheat crop.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 12.1′ and forecast 12.0by 11/11.  

CORN

UP 1

Two sided today as the market deals with a little spritz of Wed rain chances. Soon fall will be a thing of the past.  Our harvest was 61% complete yest vs expectations of 60-65%.  Mato Grosso and Parana bean planting is off to a good start at 42% vs 20% last year and SHOULD be ideal for follow up with the planting safrinha full season corn that is now 70% planted (country wide) vs 50% avg.

 

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 61% THIS WEEK,  46 % LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR, and 62% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 75% AVG

 

BEANS     

DOWN 1

 Weak palm oil exports took some of the shine off of yest’s vegatable oil market and a HUGE huge bean sale was announced. China bought another 19 mill bu (approx 516 KMT) for 16/17 deliv.  Harvest progress was reported yest at 76% complete vs expectations of 72-77%.  A quick start to Brazil planting could have 25% of Mato Grosso harvested by the end of Jan, allowing it to creeeeeep into the export market sooner than later.  The half %/mo drop in Arg’s export tax could retard further producer sales (on tap for Jan).

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 76% THIS WEEK,  62 % LAST WEEK, 84 % LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK,  58 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 77% AVG

 

Wheat

UP 2

The Plains are getting dry and the prospect for lower acreage IS on the mind.   Our winter wheat was rated 59% G/E and planting looks as if we’re darned close to getting caught up with normal (see below).  A weak La Nina’ is looking potentially negative for N Australia. Quality problems for Australia, Canada, and the EU may cause world importers to look to the US.  French exports are already expected to be DOWN 60% to 5 MMT with the US expected to capture sales to N Africa.  The Black Sea is fulfilling the needsd of the SE Asian wheat market as Indonesia has doubled its imports since July 1st!  Feed wheat exports from the Ukraine are up 23% from last year.

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  79% THIS WEEK, 72 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 82% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  68% THIS WEEK, 43 % LAST WEEK, 78 % LAST YEAR, and 67% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  60% THIS WEEK, 47% LAST WEEK, 58% LAST YEAR, and 58% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  38 % THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 34% AVG