COMMENTARY 10/24/16

Weekend showers across major US growing areas were mainly confined to the NE CB and PNW.  The Plains and Midwest 6-10 day is drier and the 11-15 looks wetter in the E.     In SA, Brazil saw showers in the EC and N areas while S Brazil and Arg were mostly dry. Mato Grosso from Sao Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul are expected to be wettest over the next 5 days. Brazil temps will remain seasonal but very warm in the NE.

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 13.2′ and forecast 11.2by 10/31.  

CORN

DOWN 4

Harvest is now 2/3 complete!   Mon’s Export Inspections were light-light-light at 21.3 vs expectations of 35 – 43 and 41.7 per week needed.  Japan took none and S Korea only lifted (cxl’d) 2.2 mill bu.  This afternoon’s harvest progress was thought to be 60-65%, up from 46% last week and last year at 70% and 62% avg.  We ARE back in the green!! See below for actuals.  Sep’s cattle on feed numbers are a record low.  Reuters expects Arg’s yc acres to be a range of 28.4 to 37 million MT due to now strong La Nina’ bringing more favorable growing weather.  Brazil has cancelled two cargoes of Argentine corn that were destined for country’s poultry sector.

MON’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 61% THIS WEEK,  46 % LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR, and 62% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 75% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 9

The SE Asian vegatable oil market is very tight.  Barge freight shot up today, dwarfing the board’s rally and setting the cash price down a nickel from Fri afternoon.  Export Inspections were huge at 100.7 mill bu! -vs expectations of 70-98 with 37.9/week needed.  China was the buyer of -> 80 mill <- of that huge total!  Looks like we finally got harvest dug back out of the hole …..Harvest progress was expected to be 72-77% complete today vs 76% avg.  See actuals below.  Safras has Brazil farmers 9% more planted at 26.4%.  That is 8 ahead of last year.  China’s latest 5 yr est has corn acres dropping by 5% to 82 million acres while soybean area is expected to grow 40%!!  -going from 16 million in 2015 to 23 by 2020!

MON’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 76% THIS WEEK,  62 % LAST WEEK, 84 % LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK,  58 % LAST WEEK,  91% LAST YEAR, and 77% AVG

 

Wheat

DOWN 12

Despite some big sales, exports prove to be light and Russian inventories continue to grow.  Inspections were only 9.0 mill bu vs trade was looking for 16-22 with 17.5 per week needed.  Winter wheat planting is coming right along now that bean harvest is getting caught back up.  Late last week, Egypt purchased some Russian wheat which btings their total to 1.2 mill tons since July 1st and accounts for 74% of their purchases.

TUE’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  79% THIS WEEK, 72 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 82% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  68% THIS WEEK, 43 % LAST WEEK, 78 % LAST YEAR, and 67% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  60% THIS WEEK, 47% LAST WEEK, 58% LAST YEAR, and 58% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  38 % THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 34% AVG