COMMENTARY 10/24/14

The U.S. will be mostly dry through Sat/Sun/Mon, then showers north as Oct temps should be average above normal.  Brazil is expected to receive normal rains in the next 7-10  days, encouraging producers to move ahead planting beans.

St Louis river levels DROPPING at +15.2 ft  and forecast to be 12.70 by 10/29.

CORN                    

DOWN 7 

Lower ahead of the biggest harvest weekend.  Corn supplies ARE ample in spite of continued export buying.    Per the USDA, more corn sales were announced today 101.6 K MT sold to Unknown for 14/15 delivery.  Corn harvest on Monday is expected to be 40-43% versus 31% LW and 59% for 10/27/13.  In the US, corn harvest is still trailing average by 22 points with slow movement.  Some are concerned about the Brazil corn potential given the slow start to soybeans and high cost/low returns.   Ukraine Exports remain sluggish:  747 K MT  Oct 1-21, vs 1.3 MMT for all of October 2013.

Last Monday’s Crop Progress report  at 74% G/E this week, 74% LW, 60%LY. The State of IL   83% G/E vs 83% LW.  US MATURE  was 93% TW, 87% LW, 93% LY, and 94% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE was 97% TW, 94% LW, NA% 96%LY, and 95% AVG.  US HARVESTED 31% TW, 24% LW, 38% LY%, and 53% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 43% TW,35% LW, 49% LY, and 63% AVG.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 15    

The biggest harvest weekend yet for beans that are significantly behind normal and South American planting concerns get eased on more significant Brazil rains.  Monday’s Bean harvest expected to be 75-78% which compares to 53% LW and 77% LY.  Thursday’s Export sales EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS  Export Sales  were 79.6 mbu vs decent expectations of  29-37 mbu with China as the big buyer.   Wednesday, talk of meal wash-outs were rampant  (Mexico and Unknown did opt out of a combined 139 K MT in today’s sales report).  Approximate meal values have US cif at a $13 (Brazil) to $24 (Arg) premium to other exporters (it’s cheaper to buy bean meal elsewhere in the world).

Oil World suggests low prices could trim Argentine planted bean area 200 K from LY to 19.6 million (USDA:  20.0).  SAFRAS says Brazilian bean planting gained only 1.6 points this week, to 7.3% and is well off the 18-20% normal pace.  AgRural pegs it at 10%, up 3.   Some areas of Mato Grosso are incurring the hottest, seasonal, driest spell in 20-30 years.   Cordonnier lowered the Brazil bean estimate by 1 to 94— citing delay increase potential for yield problems later in the season. Argentina, was up 1% to 56 with more acres going to beans.

Last Monday’s US CROP CONDITIONS at 73 % G/E, 73% LW, and 57% LY.  The State of IL was 79% G/E THIS WEEK and 79%LW. US DROPPING LEAVES 95% TW, 91% LW, 93% LY, and 97% AVG.  IL DROPPING LEAVES was 95% TW, 91%  LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  US BEANS HARVESTED 53% TW, 40 % 61%LW, 61% LY, and 66% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 37% THIS WEEK, 29% LW, 65% LY 66% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 9

Lower in sympathy with corn and beans.  Should be able to pick up the pace of srw plantings through the weekend.  Trade survey puts Australian wheat crop at 23.2, versus ABARE at 24.2 & USDA at 25.0 as frost and hail damage in Western Australia become more apparent.  The BA Exchange raised Argentine planted area from 4.5 million ha in September, to 4.6 million.  Their production is seen higher at 11.5 MMT (USDA:  12.0).  There is some quality damage to the crop in SE Buenos Aires province.  The slow pace of Midwest SRW planting also helped lift futures this week.   Nationwide wheat planting at 76% trails both LY and the 5-year by a single point.  The slow pace of Midwest corn and soybean harvest is limiting SRW planting with MI, MO and IN.  All are 15 to 20 points behind the normal with IL 37 points off the average.

Informa expects U.S. producers to plant 56.4 million acres, down 400 K from this year.  The BA Grain Exchange expects this year’s crop to exceed last year’s 10.1 MMT total; the USDA is 12.0 versus 10.5 LY.

Last Monday’s Crop Conditions Report had US Winter Wheat Planted  78% G/E THIS WEEK,  68% LW, and 77% LY, and 77% AVG.  STATE OF IL PLANTED 22% TW, 15% LW, 65% LY, and 59% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 56% TW, 43% LW, 51% LY, and 50% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED was 11% TW, 2% LW, 23% LY, and 23% AVG.