COMMENTARY 10/23/15

HRW wheat production areas are getting rain as forecasted in TX and OK, but Central KS, N OK and MISS are missing out.  More than 10 in could occur across TX and flooding has become a concern. The Delta and Midwest should expect rain the next few days, delaying harvest and wheat sowing by 2-3 days.   In SA, Argentina and Brazil weather is expected to improve, although N Brazil may not see as much rain as previously forecast. Elsewhere, parts of Ukraine and S Russia should continue to see improved crop and field conditions. Cool temps in Ukraine could limit crop development. Also of notice, New South Wales saw rain on Wed that was beneficial. SE Queensland and NW New South Wales should too, see rain over the next 7-10 days.

St Louis river level LOW & STEADY at +2.4 and forecast to be 2.2 by  10/28  (Flood Stage is 30.0)   Next topics – Rock Pinnacles and shallow barge drafts.

CORN

UP 1 

Weaker the majority of the day with good harvest activity, a strong dollar, although tempered by a new 130k sale.  U.S. corn is $11-$13 (per metric ton) higher than from S America.  Expect harvest progress to reach 73-75% on Mon, up from 59% LW, 44% LY and 68% average.  Monday’s export inspections are estimated to be 18-23.  Last week’s were 18.1.  Argentina’s Ag Minister expects their corn area to fall 11.7% to 5.3 million hectares (USDA is down only 6%, to 3.0 million).  The BA Exchange maintains a 2.7 MMT area est with planting now 32%.

 

 BEANS     

DOWN 3

There have been additional sales but the market seemed unimpressed.  Good, active harvest,  crush margins under pressure, and recent rains in Brazil are giving a boost to planting.   There was another Daily Sales Announcement of 208 K SB sold to Unknown for 15/16 and 236 K switched from Unknown to China.  Mon’s harvest progress is estimated to be 86%, up from 77% LW with LY at 68% and a 5 year of 80%.  Export Inspections should be in the 75-85 mbu range vs 86.9 Last Week.

 

 WHEAT          

UNCHANGED    

Dryness in Russia is still a concern but rains in the U.S. Plains pressured.  European and Black Sea wheat can be purchased for $15-$25 cheaper than can US wheat.  Monday’s Wheat Inspections are expected to be at 10-15 vs 7.5 last week.  Also on Mon, the winter wheat planting progress is expected to pick up 8-10 points to 84-86% complete vs 83% last week, and 85% average.