COMMENTARY 10/22/14

Very little in the way of precip and mild temps are speeding the U.S. harvest up over the next week to 10 days!!  Normal to significant 1-2” amounts forecast for Central-West and S Brazil next week and lights showers in N Argentina tomorrow with heavier amounts by the weekend. 

St Louis river levels DROPPING at +16.0 ft  and forecast to be 13.9 by 10/27.

CORN                    

DOWN 3 

Less than ideal planting weather in Brazil likely to have caused FUND BUYING most of the day, until the last hour.  Some are concerned about the Brazil corn potential given the slow start to soybeans and high cost/low returns.  In the US, corn harvest is trailing average by 22 points as the farmer is in no hurry to sell. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to be 31 – 39 million bu.  Ukraine Exports remain sluggish:  747 K MT  Oct 1-21, vs 1.3 MMT for all of October 2013.

Monday’s Crop Progress report  at 74% G/E this week, 74% LW, 60%LY. The State of IL   83% G/E vs 83% LW.  US MATURE  was 93% TW, 87% LW, 93% LY, and 94% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE was 97% TW, 94% LW, NA% 96%LY, and 95% AVG.  US HARVESTED 31% TW, 24% LW, 38% LY%, and 53% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 43% TW,35% LW, 49% LY, and 63% AVG.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 2     

Strong export demand, late US harvest lent support and FUND BUYING most of the day had beans up 18 cents on their high.  Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to be 27 – 37 million bu. The Export Inspections this week were at 73.2 ~the largest ever this early in the year.  Rains began in Brazil yesterday afternoon, but slow planting pace has some already reducing crop size.

Oil World suggests low prices could trim Argentine planted bean area 200 K from LY to 19.6 million (USDA:  20.0).  SAFRAS says Brazilian bean planting gained only 1.6 points this week, to 7.3% and is well off the 18-20% normal pace.  AgRural pegs it at 10%, up 3.   Some areas of Mato Grosso are incurring the hottest, seasonal, driest spell in 20-30 years.   Cordonnier lowered the Brazil bean estimate by 1 to 94— citing delay increase potential for yield problems later in the season. Argentina, was up 1% to 56 with more acres going to beans.

Monday’s US CROP CONDITIONS at 73 % G/E, 73% LW, and 57% LY.  The State of IL was 79% G/E THIS WEEK and 79%LW. US DROPPING LEAVES 95% TW, 91% LW, 93% LY, and 97% AVG.  IL DROPPING LEAVES was 95% TW, 91%  LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  US BEANS HARVESTED 53% TW, 40 % 61%LW, 61% LY, and 66% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 37% THIS WEEK, 29% LW, 65% LY 66% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 3

Flooding and hail has caused widespread crop damage in Western Australia.  The slow pace of Midwest SRW planting also helped lift futures coupled with the early strength in row crops (compliments of the Funds).  Thursday’s Export Sales Report is expected to be 13 – 18 million bu. Nation-wide wheat planting at 76% trails both LY and the 5-year by a single point.  The slow pace of Midwest corn and soybean harvest is limiting SRW planting with MI, MO and IN.  All are 15 to 20 points behind the normal with IL 37 points off the average.

Informa expects U.S. producers to plant 56.4 million acres, down 400 K from this year.  The BA Grain Exchange expects this year’s crop to exceed last year’s 10.1 MMT total; the USDA is 12.0 versus 10.5 LY.

Monday’s Crop Conditions Report had US Winter Wheat Planted  78% G/E THIS WEEK,  68% LW, and 77% LY, and 77% AVG.  STATE OF IL PLANTED 22% TW, 15% LW, 65% LY, and 59% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 56% TW, 43% LW, 51% LY, and 50% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED was 11% TW, 2% LW, 23% LY, and 23% AVG.