COMMENTARY 10/21/14

Very little in the way of precip and mild temps should speed the U.S. harvest the next week to 10 days!!

Center-West and SE Brazil had showers the past 24 hours although most other areas are dry and temps are more seasonal. The lack of humidity will slow storm development the next few days with the best rainfall chances early next week across S Brazil, then expanding to the rest of the region.  Improved planting conditions are forseen but precip amounts will be in the ¾ to 1 ½” range for the Center-West/South, lesser amounts expected for SE Brazil. Production-wise, corn is more of a concern than beans at this point. Weather in Argentina looks ideal with dry & warm through Saturday; then varying amounts Sun/Mon which should help benefit wheat in the region.

St Louis river levels DROPPING at +17.0 ft  and forecast to be 14.2 by 10/26.

CORN                    

UP 7 

FUND BUYING.  Funds bought 6,000 contracts or 30 million bu today.  Corn harvest is trailing average by 22 points as the farmer is in no hurry to sell.  Some are concerned about the Brazil corn potential given the slow start to soybeans and high cost/low returns.

Monday’s Crop Progress report  at 74% G/E this week, 74% LW, 60%LY. The State of IL   83% G/E vs 83% LW.  US MATURE  was 93% TW, 87% LW, 93% LY, and 94% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE was 97% TW, 94% LW, NA% 96%LY, and 95% AVG.  US HARVESTED 31% TW, 24% LW, 38% LY%, and 53% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 43% TW,35% LW, 49% LY, and 63% AVG.

 

BEANS     

UP 20     

FUND BUYING.  Funds bought 7,000 contracts or 35 million bu today.  Rains begining in Brazil yesterday afternoon, but slow planting pace has some already reducing crop size. The exports this week are at 73.2 ~the largest ever this early in the year.   SAFRAS says Brazilian bean planting gained only 1.6 points this week, to 7.3% and is well off the 18-20% normal pace.  AgRural pegs it at 10%, up 3.   Some areas of Mato Grosso are incurring the hottest, seasonal, driest spell in 20-30 years.   Cordonnier lowered the Brazil bean estimate by 1 to 94— citing delay increase potential for yield problems later in the season. Argentina, was up 1% to 56 with more acres going to beans.

Monday’s US CROP CONDITIONS at 73 % G/E, 73% LW, and 57% LY.  The State of IL was 79% G/E THIS WEEK and 79%LW. US DROPPING LEAVES 95% TW, 91% LW, 93% LY, and 97% AVG.  IL DROPPING LEAVES was 95% TW, 91%  LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  US BEANS HARVESTED 53% TW, 40 % 61%LW, 61% LY, and 66% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 37% THIS WEEK, 29% LW, 65% LY 66% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 6

FUND BUYING.  Funds bought 3,200 contracts or 16 million bu today.  Slow pace of Midwest SRW planting also helped lift futures coupled with the strength in row crops.  Nation-wide wheat planting at 76% trails both LY and the 5-year by a single point.  The slow pace of Midwest corn and soybean harvest is limiting SRW planting with MI, MO and IN.  All are 15 to 20 points behind the normal with IL 37 points off the average.

Informa expects U.S. producers to plant 56.4 million acres, down 400 K from this year.  The BA Grain Exchange expects this year’s crop to exceed last year’s 10.1 MMT total; the USDA is 12.0 versus 10.5 LY.

Monday’s Crop Conditions Report had US Winter Wheat Planted  78% G/E THIS WEEK,  68% LW, and 77% LY, and 77% AVG.  STATE OF IL PLANTED 22% TW, 15% LW, 65% LY, and 59% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 56% TW, 43% LW, 51% LY, and 50% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED was 11% TW, 2% LW, 23% LY, and 23% AVG.