COMMENTARY 10/20/16

THAT was an unexpected drench!  Warm temps are expected for the Midwest this week facilitating harvest progress. The Plains should stay relatively dry. In SA, Brazil should  see heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina through next Tues.

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 16.6′ and forecast 12.2by 10/25.  

CORN

DOWN 6

Generally favorable weather should help harvest move past the halfway point. Expectations are that we should be at least 60% complete by next Mon.  Today’s sell off began immediately after the market traded to three month highs, up to $3.59.   Thursday’s Sales were huge!! – at 40.3 mill bu vs expectations of 28-35 with 29.1 per week needed.  Good volumes went to Colombia, Peru, N Africa, Saudi Arabia and SE Asia.  Funds sold another 10,000 contracts today, making them roughly net-even for the week. This is the first time Dec Fut traded above the 100 day avg since June.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 5

Strong bean sales along with another daily export announcement lent early support.  Export Sales were a hearty 73.8 mill bu vs expectations of 37-48. China bought 77.8 mill  of the total while 11 went the EU.  Meal Sales were also hot at  398 K MT vs expectations of 150-300 with 156 per week needed.  Big buyers were Philippines, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Peru.  ABIOVE suggests a rapid Brazil planting that could push the total area above the 33.2 million HA (82 mil acres) total that was originally forecasted.  The USDA est is at 33.8, up from 33.1 last year.  Brazil’s forward contracted sales are apporx 24%, down from 40% last year as low prices and a strengthening Real are keeping farmers on the sideline.

 

Wheat

DOWN 3

Ahhhh….a Sales reported – 114 K MT to Unknown for 16/17.  Export Sales were decent at  18.9 mill bu vs expectations of 13-20 with 12.4 per week needed.  Mexico, Japan, and S Korea were the big buyers.  Wheat sales over the past month at 18/week are up 64% year to year and 12% greater than avg.  So far shipments are running 40% or 6 million per week higher at 22 mill.