COMMENTARY 10/20/14

 In the U.S., dry and mild weather will aid harvesting and planting into the end of the month!  In south America, the 21-day rainfall departures of -2.00″ to -4.00″ are common in Center-West, Northeast, and Southeast Brazil. These areas together produce 53% (23%) of first-crop (total) corn and 63% of soybeans in Brazil.  Widespread rain is needed to improve topsoil moisture for planting/development across much of Brazil.  A cooler and wetter pattern slowly increases topsoil moisture through 7 to 10 days, except in and adjacent Bahia and Minas Gerais where a lack of humidity suppresses rainfall.  Argentina, Paraguay, and South Brazil stay dry this week.

St Louis river levels EASING at +18.4 ft  and forecast to be 14.9 by 10/25.

CORN                    

UNCHANGED 

Down a nickel most of the day until shrugging off better harvest weather.  Export Inspections 28.3 on corn vs 34-40 expected and 33.9 per week needed.

Monday’s Crop Progress report  at 74% G/E this week, 74% LW, 60%LY. The State of IL   83% G/E vs 83% LW.  US MATURE  was 93% TW, 87% LW, 93% LY, and 94% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE was 97% TW, 94% LW, NA% 96%LY, and 95% AVG.  US HARVESTED 31% TW, 24% LW, 38% LY%, and 53% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 43% TW,35% LW, 49% LY, and 63% AVG.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 7      

Huge exports, and harvest progress was expected to approach 55%.  Finally good week for activity!  Informa is projecting a 4.3 million acre increase in 15/16 U.S. bean plantings, to 88.5.  Despite bean production costs approaching $8.55/bushel in Mato Grosso (30% of Brazil output), producers are expected to increase production as much as 7+% this year. Sticker shock is hitting home—only 11% of expected production has been forward contracted, down from 50% a year ago at this time.

 The Rabo Bank price outlook for Q3 is $12.00,  Q2 is $10.00, and $10.60 in 1st quarter of 2105, expecting higher acreages in Brazil and Argentina despite prospects of lower prices.   A Farm Future’s survey indicates a 2.1% increase in 2015 U.S. soybean plantings to 86.6 million and sees returns from both beans and corn falling below the cost of production.

Monday’s US CROP CONDITIONS at 73 % G/E, 73% LW, and 57% LY.  The State of IL was 79% G/E THIS WEEK and 79%LW. US DROPPING LEAVES 95% TW, 91% LW, 93% LY, and 97% AVG.  IL DROPPING LEAVES was 95% TW, 91%  LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  US BEANS HARVESTED 53% TW, 40 % 61%LW, 61% LY, and 66% AVG.  IL HARVESTED 37% THIS WEEK, 29% LW, 65% LY 66% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 3

Pressure from row crops bled over into wheat.  Wheat Inspections at 17.7 vs 16-20 expected and 16.8/week needed.  Informa expects U.S. producers to plant 56.4 million acres, down 400 K from this year.  The BA Grain Exchange expects this year’s crop to exceed last year’s 10.1 MMT total; the USDA is 12.0 versus 10.5 LY.

Monday’s Crop Conditions Report had US Winter Wheat Planted  78% G/E THIS WEEK,  68% LW, and 77% LY, and 77% AVG.  STATE OF IL PLANTED 22% TW, 15% LW, 65% LY, and 59% AVG.  US WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 56% TW, 43% LW, 51% LY, and 50% AVG.  THE STATE OF IL EMERGED was 11% TW, 2% LW, 23% LY, and 23% AVG.