COMMENTARY 10/13/16

Dry now with just a few scattered storms about the Corn Belt with warmer than normal temps should encourage harvest again. In SA, more rain is expected for Arg, S Brazil, and Paraguay for the next 7-10 days.  Some areas, like Rio Grande DS are forecast to receive as much as 6″.  The N should get a chance to dry out.

St Louis river level FALLING ~ at 20.1′ and forecast 15.2by 10/17.  

CORN

UP 12

Hey!  It was the biggest rally since July!  Looks like a decent week for more harvest in the N.  We NEED to take a bigger whack at harvest to get our % complete up out of the red.  Export Sales will be out late tomorrow due to Mon’s holiday and are expected to be 31-43 mill bu.

TUE’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 35% THIS WEEK,  24 % LAST WEEK, 38% LAST YEAR, and 38% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  62% THIS WEEK,  43 % LAST WEEK,  65% LAST YEAR, and 51% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 10

Pulled higher by corn.  Big, bountiful yields are cutting into nearby basis values as logistics of space are critical.  IL harvest is growing farther behind.  Expect  China to be coming to town as last week was their holiday and crush margins are up.  Tomorrow’s export sales guess is 33-44 mill bu which appears rahter low given the sales activity we heard earlier in the week.

 

TUE’S CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 44% THIS WEEK,  26 % LAST WEEK, 56 % LAST YEAR, and 47% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  39% THIS WEEK,  16 % LAST WEEK,  65% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

 

Wheat

UP 19

A rebound from yesterday’s decline as dryness expands in the E US srw region.  Dec fut traded to their highest since late Aug and we closed above the 50 day moving average of 412. Thank-you Fund short covering. The US $ was weaker and the thought of more potential exports lent support. Egypt tendered for wheat but didn’t buy US, despite the fact that we ARE now competitive to other origins.  Export Sales will be out tomorrow and is expected to be 13 – 20 mill bu.

TUE’S CROP PROGRESS:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  59% THIS WEEK, 43 % LAST WEEK, 60% LAST YEAR, and 60% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  20% THIS WEEK, 6 % LAST WEEK, 36 % LAST YEAR, and 30% AVG