COMMENTARY 1/30/17

The remains of a cool front and two additional surges may cause rain much of SA into the weekend, producing the possibility for heavy accum for the already wetter areas of Arg and bringing some to the more drier areas of S Brazil and Paraguay, and Mato Grosso.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 15.2′ and forecast 13.4by 2/3.  

CORN

DOWN 5

Pressured from the South American weather forecast improving and funds were sellers of some 9,000 contracts. Export Inspections were above the high end at 41.8 mill bu vs expectations of 30- 37.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 27

Ouch!  Last Fri’s Commitment of Traders Report showed large non commercial/specs significantly longer from 33K contracts to 153K net long! This set the stage for today’s selling and continued to trigger sell stops.   Like in yc, Export Inspections were WAY above expectations at 59.9 mill bu vs 33-47 expected.  The EU took 10.3 mill, China 32.8, Mexico 4.6, and Japan 4.3 mill bu. Basis is weak in all major markets. Dr. Cordonnier increased his Argentina production 1 MMT to 52.  One forecast now shows the current cold front producing moderate to heavy rains for much of Argentina and Brazil middle of the week and then again towards the weekend. Brazil bean harvest is now thought to be 16% complete.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 6

Technically speaking, we did not fair well today as Mar fut closed below the 50 day moving avg.  Several states have released their crop conditions and overall look positive with MT at 70% G/E, ND 82% G/E, SD 62% G/E, IL 74% G/E, and CO 36 G/E.   The cold weather stayed to the N areas of Russia over the weekend which eased thoughts on winter kill for the light snow pack areas of the Central/S. Tonight’s cold, too, is expected to stay more N.  Today’s Inspections were decent at 11.8 mill vs expectations of 7 – 15.