COMMENTARTY 4/17/14 **SEED VARIETY ACCEPTANCE**

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO BEFORE PLANTING:

– Ask how you can help keep US Ag Exports competitive.  WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to exchange for seed that IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 

CORN

DOWN 3

 

SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you are going to plant.  Ensure what they are selling you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are some contaminated seed issues out there.

St Louis river on the rise at +12.6 ft and forecast to be 15.8 by 4/22.

Weaker on a drier outlook and very little new positive news.  Export Sales weren’t shabby at 23.7 vs expectations of 22 – 33 and only needed 4.7.  China and another unknown cancelled 17.2 and 6.6 switched to other destinations.  USDA announced a sale of 125k mt to Korea.  Western Canada corn acres expected to be down 14% this year due to lower prices according to Monsanto.  Next Monday’s % Corn Plantings are expected to be 7 – 10%.  Last year was 4% with an avg of 16%.  Argentine corn harvest is 12% behind last year at 20% complete according to BA Exchange.

Ukraine’s troubles with Russia should help push corn demand to the US as they will be guaranteed the vessels will load and ship.  April 1st Ukraine corn stocks are up 800k mt at 5.9.  This indicates that their exports will likely be 1 mmt tons higher vs last year.  France’s parliament votes to BAN growing ALL VARIETIES of genetically modified corn.  Chinese weather watchers have their eye on possible El Nino conditions causing a cooler summer, which in the past has caused significant freeze damage to both corn and soybean crops.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 22 – 33 million.  We are only 3% planted currently, 2% last year, and 6% is avg!  Southern corn planting: Texas is 57% planted vs 55% avg.

 

BEANS

DOWN 5

Disappointing meal sales, caused by lower crush needs coupled with cheaper Brazilian basis (dropped another dime today) pressures  old crop.  New crop bean sales are near record pace.  Old crop Export Sales was positive simply because it WASN’T negative.  China and United Kingdom cancelled 4.5 mbu.  BA Exchange believes Argentina is 21% harvested, behind last year by 17%.  Chinese hog prices are at a 4 year low.  This curtails soybean meal demand (see more details below).  In the US, LA, ARK, and MS are anywhere from 2 – 10% behind normal with soybean planting.   Safras has Brazil harvest at 86%, 4% ahead of last year.

Shangai JC indicates Chinese vessel defaults have grown now to as much as 23 vessels that have either been delayed or defaulted on – and counting due to Chinese defaults.  Chinese have now cancelled or defaulted on up to  2 MILLION mt of US and Brazilian beans.    This is the biggest default in 10 years.  From Reuters, a string of defaults on loans, bonds, and shadowy banking highlights the high credit risk of doing business with China and are likely fueled by their slowing economy.   Chinese crushers are rumored to be aggressive competition into the SE Asian meal market (wonder why they are selling meal?).   Also from China, via Reuters, Chinese officials believe that the severe issue of bird flu could lower their third quarter bean demand by 18% MORE than it did last year.  With the negative crush margins, Chinese bean crushers are losing between $80 – 100 per ton currently crushing beans for meal.

 

WHEAT

UP 3

A little carry-over from potential freeze damage.  We still need substantial rain in the Plains for the HRW areas.  Commodity Weather says  the freeze could result in up to a 10% reduction from W KS to the TX panhandle due to recent freeze.   Export Sales exceeded trade ideas at 16.1 million old crop and 13.2 million new crop.  The Ukraine has shipped 10 mbu of wheat during the first half of April, up from 4+ million a year ago.   Keep an eye on the Black Sea region as turmoil heats up today with shots fired in Ukraine.  There is a small chance for some slight rain in OK and TX this weekend, but sparse.  US Winter wheat conditions declined 1% to 34% Good/Excellent vs 35% last week, and 36% last year. OK and TX and only 13 and 14% Good to Excellent.

ESTL CITY ORDINANCE MAX LOAD WEIGHT 10,000 lbs ~POSTPONED UNIL APRIL 30th.