COMMENTARY 5/30/14

**ADDITIONAL DELIVERY RESTRICTIONS!**

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

 

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO BEFORE PLANTING:

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to exchange for seed that IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 

ATTN SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you are going to plant.  Ensure what they are selling you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are some contaminated seed issues out there.

 

COMMENTARY

CORN

DOWN 4

 

St Louis river levels easing  at +17.5 ft today and forecast to be 15.4 by 6/4.

Weather driving things down.  It’s a GREAT time to be a corn plant especially for the next 7 – 10 days!  Additionally with El Nino forecasts, “ideal summer weather” is in store for the corn belt.  Thursday’s Export Sales were 24.5 vs expectations of 12 – 20 mill!  New crop was rather puny at 3.6 with Mexico the big buyer.  The first nationwide crop rating will be out this Monday and G/E corn is expected to be 68%, vs 63% LY and 68% for the 5 yr avg.  China has begun importing small amounts of Brazil corn.

Last week’s Prospective Plantings was 88% planted, 73% LW, 84% LY, and 88% AVG.   The State of IL was 95% THIS WEEK, 84% LW, 87%LY, and 88% AVG.   US EMERGENCE was 60% THIS WEEK, 34% LW, 49% LY, and64% AVG.  EMERGENCE in The State of IL is 81% THIS WEEK, 60% LW, 61% LY, and 67% AVG.    China is expected to plant 10% fewer beans as corn pencils out more revenue per acre.  High internal demand in Russia may cause a 25% reduction in exports.

 

BEANS

OLD DOWN 6   NEW DOWN 11

Weaker on weather despite decent exports.  Export Sales were decent at 2.2 vs expectations of -4 to +4.  New crop was quite nice 30.2 mill.  Oil World fears that Argentina’s big bean crop may be in jeopardy as 6.2 mill ha are still unharvested (only 2.6mill last yr). Last week’s U.S. Prospective planted report was 59% planted, 33% LW, 41% LY and 56% AVG. The State of Illinois was planted 64% this week, 33% last week, 37% last year and 50%  average.  EMERGENCE for the US 25% THIS WEEK, 9% LW, 12% LY, and27% AVG.  The State of IL is emerged 32% THIS WEEK, 11% LW, 10% LY, and 26% AVG.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 5

Rains are forecasted for the Plains next week.  Market perceives that southern rains have lent aid to parched areas.  Russian forecasts are still calling for a hot dry summer, but wasn’t enough to hold things positive.  Export Sales were puny today at -1.9 mill vs expectations of 0 – +7 mill.  New crop Export Sales were actually ABOVE expectations at 19.5 vs 7 – 15 expected.  Last Monday’s Spring wheat Planting Progress, received a 74%!  That compared with 49% LW, 77% LY, and 82% AVG.  Winter Wheat conditions are 30% Good/Excellent, 29% LW, and 31% LY.  KS G/E is a mere 11%, OK G/E is only 5%, and TX G/E is only 12%.

Continue to keep an eye peeled on the Black Sea region as turmoil continues with Ukraine and Russia.

ESTL CITY ORDINANCE MAX LOAD WEIGHT 10,000 lbs ~POSTPONED UNIL APRIL 30th.  ~Still reportedly “open for business as usual”