COMMENTARY 6/28/17

Looks like the warm/moist air won the fight (at least for now) as three significant systems move across the Central US.  Good rains with decent coverage of 1.5” to 3.5” of accum are expected for the majority of the Corn Belt.  The E Plains and Delta are expecting 1” to 2” of accum.  Things still look rainless for the N.

CORN

DOWN 2

The first of several rains disappointed the coverage area in the Dakota’s.  Crop conditions on Monday had SD at 46% G/E vs 72% last year and ND at 56% vs 78% last year.  This could likely cause up to a 300 mill bu reduction!  Like many other areas, the N had a big crop and still has that crop locked away in its clutches.  Those bu’s trend towards the W via PNW rail and that market is being out competed by SA.  Fri’s report has most analysts expecting 89.8 mill vs 90.0 back in March.  C/O stocks are expected to be around 5.125 in a 4.685-5.360 range. Anticipation for this report has caused some price volatility, but not to the upside!  So far, July fut are down 35 cents since their high on 6/8.  Export Sales, out tomorrow are expected to be 14 -22 mill bu.  IF <– we miss the rains in the forecast for the next 6 days, the paragraph below will carry more of your interest.

A look at the 30 day moisture graphic shows MOST of the Corn Belt in the Very Short rating.  A comparison of sub-soil moisture maps now in 2017 compared to 2012 is SPOOKILY similar.  Stop by and check out the graphs.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US YC SILKING:   4%TW,  na% LW, 5% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YC SILKING:   2% TW, na% LW, 3% LY, and 6% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  67% LW, and 75% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 62% G/E, 59% LW

BEANS

UP 3

Good rain chances, but higher due to light fund buying.  They bought an est 5,000 contracts today.  The summer weather is now in the spotlight.  Many folks in the market think the bean acres “look a little tough” and indeed are in NEED of rain.  It must also be pointed out that at THIS point, “tough” looking beans don’t necessarily indicate a “tough” yield….not yet.  A high ridge is thought to develop sometime after next Tues and some forecast models are calling for the last two weeks of July to be towards the hot side.  In SA, heavy rains may delay loading of vessels on top of a potential worker strike in the ports. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be just 7 -15 mill bu.

Crop Progress:

US YSB EMERGED:   94%TW,  89% LW,  94% LY, and 91% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   97% TW, 92% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG

US YSB BLOOMING: 9% TW,  na% LW, 8% LY, and 7% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    7% TW, 1% LW, 6% LY, and 5% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  66% G/E,  67% LW, and 72% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 70% G/E, 67% LW

 

WHEAT

UP 4

MN wheat fut pulled both KC and Chi higher today.  The upper Midwest has been so dry and no one knows what the damage and abandonment looks like until it is over.  This is the market getting into rationing mode. The HRW harvest is finishing up and KS has been seeing some improved protein.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be in the 13 -20 mill bu range.

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    40 G/E% TW, 41% LW, 72% LY

US G/E CONDITIONS: 49% G/E, 49% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 64% G/E, 64% LW – a 0% increase

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   41% TW, 28% LW, 42% LY, and 39% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    78% TW, 65% LW, 71% LY, and 47% AVG