COMMENTARY 5/22/17

We faired fairly well over the weekend accum-wise.  It could have been worse.  We have a speckled forecast with areas of rain for more of the Central US especially from here East. A second bout comes through again for the weekend, especially for the South.  Temps look to warm up mid next week.

CORN

UP 2

Concerns over replant and delayed emergence.  We aren’t behind, but there is still a lot of replanted corn that still needs to re-emerge.  Monday’s Export Inspections were at the upper end of the range at 45 mill bu vs expectations of 33-49.  Its hot/dry in China with 600 thousand hectares around Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning are under stress.  See actual conditions below.  State by state conditions are showing that states in poorer condition are ACTUALLY in good condition! IA is 75% G/E , MN 82%.  Most states are avg or above avg with exception to IL and MO.

 Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:    84% TW, 71% LW, 84% LY, and 85% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:    89% TW, 75% LW, 88% LY, and 90% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   54%TW,  31% LW,  58% LY, and 55% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   67% TW, 47% LW,75% LY, and 69% AVG

BEANS

UP 4

Slowing, but surely climbing its way back from the 30 cent drop last week!  It FEELS like we are behind planting, maybe that is because it is so chilly?  Export Inspections were 12.8 mill vs expectations of 9 – 16 mill.  In SA, the Real continues to be relatively low.  How long will their producers hang tight?

 

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 53% TW, 32% LW, 53% TY, and 52% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    48% TW, 23% LW, 48% LY, and 52% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   19%TW,  8 % LW,  20% LY, and 21% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   18% TW, 6% LW, 19% LY, and 23% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 1

Stronger early this am on wet weather, Southern quality, disappointing yields, and a weaker dollar. Spring Wheat was est at 89% TW, 78% LW, 94% LY, 84% AVG.  Export Inspections were hearty again this week at 24.8 vs expectations of 16 -26 mill bu.  Our wheat took a tumble despite the US conditions.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   72% TW, 63% LW, 74% LY, and 67% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    94% TW, 86% LW, 87% LY, and 77% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 51% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 44% G/E, 52% LW – Yet Another 8% drop!