COMMENTARY 4/28/16

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” –  John Maynard Keynes

Significant rainfall affects much of the N Plains, Corn Belt and Delta into Thursday, but bypasses HRW wheat areas from W Kansas and S.  Another big system comes through over the weekend, bringing more heavy rain to the S Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta.  After that we turn unseasonably cool with highs in the 50 – 60’s.  The NWS forecast shows 70% of yc and ysb areas could receive at least 2.00” of rain in the next 7 days!

St Louis river level ~RISING ~ at 14.5′ and forecast 21.2′ by 5/3.  

CORN

OLD UP 6      NEW UP 4

Higher on HUGE export sales and talk of heavy rain further S in the Corn Belt than previously thought.   Export Sales were HUGE at 85.1 mill bu, well above expectations of 39-51 mill bu!  This is the highest total since 86.0 was sold one week in Jan 15.  New-crop sales of 17.3 were also above the trade range of 8-16.  Looks like the majority of Brazil’s safrinha corn will stay dry into mid May, although temps may not be AS hot as seen recently. Almost everyone in the trade is now penciling in at least a 1.7bbu 15/16 export figure (+50mbu over USDA last estimate) with many in the market thinking Brazil’s corn crop has dropped to 78-80MMT vs  USDA last estimate of 85.

Last Monday’s

US PLANTING PROGRESS 30% THIS WEEK, 13% LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG

IL PLANTING PROGRESS 42% THIS WEEK, 12% LAST WEEK, 26% LAST YEAR, and 25% AVG

 

BEANS     

OLD~ DOWN 1       NEW~ UP 5

This wacky rally was caused no doubt, from Fund buying early, until the end!  A 28 cent range today, ending lower.  Old crop Export Sales of 8.3 mill bu were well below the expectations of 15-22.  New crop of 26.5 was well above the 11-18 mill bu range.  Cold weather last night in Argentina as some areas dropped down to freezing.  It is not expected at this time to get cold enough to cause pods to burst, but it’s not the most ideal way for them to dry out after having harvest slowed for over 20 days.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 4

Mixed, but off the early am highs.  A good week of Export Sales with old crop @ 12.9 mill bu vs expectations of 3-6, with new crop at16.7 near the high end of the range of the  11-17 mill bu expectation.  More rain is still in the forecast for US HRW wheat this weekend, with additional amounts for most of our SRW areas.