COMMENTARY 8/27/14**NO VOMI MAX @ NEW DOUGLAS**

Last night brought showers from Kansas to Wisconsin.  The forecast is for ABOVE average precip in most corn and bean areas over the next 10 days with several events.  The exception is Ohio.   The Mississippi River valley should be moist Sat night. Sunday rains to the east of the Mississippi River Valley and the Ohio River Valley should get rain Monday, with Arkansas to Ohio on Tuesday.  A seasonable mild  to very stormy pattern will affect the central U.S. through 7-10 days.  Widespread coverage of above-average rainfall is expected, including the possibility for too much rain across the northwest half of the Corn Belt where 2.50″ – 5.00″ cannot be ruled out.

St Louis river levels EASING at +9.4 ft  and forecast to be 8.0 by 9/1.

CORN                      

Steady

Looking for direction.   Big yields on dryland corn in Tx, KS, OK, MO, AR and the Delta continue with 20% above average.  Also seeing excellent stands North of I-80 in Ia.  According to Bloomberg, one pundit expects U.S. corn prices to remain sub-$3 from 15/16 through 19/20 crop years with 15/16 ending corn stocks rising to nearly 3 bbu.  An IL Farm Appraisal group reports a 4.2% drop in average Illinois farm land prices, to $13,000 for the first half of  2014.

Pro Farmer results:      U.S. CORN YIELD is 169.3 BPA vs the USDA at 167.4 and the SIZE of the crop is 14.093 vs the USDA at 14.032 bbu.  Also according to Pro Farmer, the producer is 27% sold.  The 5 yr S/O/N average though 12/13  is 31%.  Pro Farmer’s opinion of the IA corn yield is 178.8, which is BELOW the USDA’s at 185. Their MN corn yield is 170.8, DOWN from last year’s 181.1.

The Crop Progress report increased 1 showing corn at 73% G/E this week, 72% LW, 59%LY. The State of IL  increased 2 at 82% G/E vs 80% LW.  US Dented is 35% TW, 22% LW, 21% LY and 43% Avg.  The IL dented 48% TW 34% LW 27%  53% AVG.   US DOUGH STAGE was 83% TW, 70% LW, 67% LY, and 78% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH was 93% TW, 86% LW, 85% LY, and 87% AVG.

 

BEANS    

DOWN 4  

Great weather abounds for a bumper crop of beans.  Delta harvest has started with a report of MS beans making as high as 96 bpa.  Our cool wet summer has made a perfect breeding ground for Sudden Death Syndrome.   A Farm Future’s survey indicates a 2.1% increase in 2015 U.S. soybean plantings to 86.6 million and sees returns from both beans and corn falling below the cost of production.  The U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO says beans below $12 will lead to “a few percent lower” plantings in Brazil.   The USDA’s latest forecast is for 2% increase in area planted.

Pro Farmer results:      U.S. BEAN YIELD  45.35 BPA vs the USDA at 45.4  and the SIZE of the crop is 3.812 vs the USDA at 3.816 bbu.

US CROP CONDITIONS decreased 1% at 70 % G/E, 71% LW, and 58% LY.  The State of IL was 78% G/E THIS WEEK and 78%LW. US POD SETTING 90% TW, 83% LW, 82% LY, and 89% AVG.  IL POD SETTING was 94% TW, 89%  LW, 82% LY, and 88% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 6

Russia’s harvest is now 54% harvested and bigger than aniticipated at 3.4 tons per hectare vs just 2.9 last year. It’s a bad time to have a big crop and poor diplomatic relations with neighboring countries.

US Spring Wheat conditions are 66% G/E THIS WEEK,  68% LW, and 67% LY.  US Spring Wheat Harvested 27% THIS WEEK, 17% LW, 39% LY, and 49% AVG.

Be prepared to carry lower quality wheat through fall harvest an into NEXT year’s wheat.  The market is well armed to pay you for your troubles.

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.