COMMENTARY 6/12/18

Hot weather this week and more chances for additional showers are forecast.  Wheat harvest is approaching rapidly with the hot weather of late!  it’s is advisable to get it cut BEFORE rain has an opportunity to erode the quality! 

CORN

UP 10

Bullish report!  Funds were buyers of some 25K contracts.  Old crop c/o was reduced 80 mill bu to 2.102 bill.  That was 61 mill below the average guess with a 75 mill bu increase in exports at 2.3 bill bu.  It also included a 5 mill bu reduction in imports. New crop Prod, unchanged from May and c/o was reduced 105 to 1.577 bill. As anticipated, Brazil’s corn production was lowered…down 2 MMT from to 85 MMT while leaving Argentina was unchanged at 33 MMT. Producer movement continues to be nonexistent, except for the most desperate, needing money for cash flow.

 

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC EMERGED:   94% TW,  86% LW, 893 LY, and 92% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   95% TW,  91% LW, 95% LY, and 95% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  77% G/E, 78% LW, and 67% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    82% G/E,   81% LW,  58% LY

BEANS              

UNCHANGED

Better to start but then shrugged off bullishness. On the report, old crop crush was increased 25 mill to 2.015 bill bu. Old crop exports were unchanged at 2.065 bill. C/O came in 25 mill bu lower than May, at 505 mill. New crop demand had crush again getting bumped, by 5 mbu, to 2.0 bbu. Exports were unchanged at 2.29 bill bu. Yield and acres were unchanged.  New crop c/o dropped 30 mill bu in at 385 mill vs the est of 435 mill.  For SA, bearish as the Brazilian crop was increased by 2.0 MMT to 119.0.  Conab, had it est at 118 prior to the report release this am. Argentina was lowered 2, to 37 MMT.

 

 Crop Progress:
US YSB PLANTED:   93% TW,  87% LW, 91% LY, and 85% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   96% TW,  94% LW, 92% LY, and 85% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   83% TW,  468% LW, 74% LY, and 69% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   90% TW,  85% LW, 76% LY, and 72% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  73% G/E, 75% LW, and 66% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    83% G/E,   78% LW,  and 66% LY

 

WHEAT

UP 20

What a rally! – especially since it was just a neutral report!  (but we’ll TAKE it!)  Fever likely came from continued concern over Australia/Russia/Ukraine, and EU weather issues and IF they all continue to struggle, it SHOULD help consumers come to the US.  Winter wheat Production was above the avg guess at 1.198 bill but still 6% below last year’s. Harvested acres will be refreshed on the next report, out 6/29.  The biggest changes showed world 18/19 Production reduced by 3.1 MMT last month to 744.7 MMT.  That’s approx 13.5 MMT below last mo.

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   38% G/E TW,  37% LW, and 50% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    71% G/E TW,  62% LW, and 64% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     91% TW,  83% LW, 91% LY, and 90% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    100% TW,  98% LW, 100% LY, and 98% AVG

US WINTER HARVESTED:     14% TW, 5% LW, 16% LY, and 10% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     1% TW, 0% LW, 21% LY, and 4% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   97% TW, 91% LW, 99% LY, and 94% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT EMERGED:   94% TW, 81% LW, 94% LY, and 89% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   70%G/E TW, 70% LW, and 45% LY